The non-partisan social analytics team changed the Senate race in Nevada from a toss-up, indicating a change in the favor of Republicans.
Republicans ‘ favorability in Nevada’s Senate race has been updated by The Cook Political Report.
On April 3, the social analytics firm, which rates social races on their good results, shifted Nevada from “lean Democrat” to” lob- up”.
The Nevada Senate seat, which is currently held by Sen. Jacky Rosen ( D- Nev. ), is a key target for Republicans this cycle. According to recent poll, she’s most likely to square off against a retired Army capt. Sam Brown, who was 13 items ahead of the pack of GOP hopefuls in the most current polls.
Jessica Taylor, a writer for Cook Political Report, explained the choice to upgrade the Silver State’s Democratic conflict in a blog post. She acknowledged that the rating “may be a bit surprising” in view of Democrats ‘ 2016 and 2020 presidential victories in the state, which has n’t voted for a Republican for a statewide office since 2012.
However, Ms. Taylor cited a number of measures of state Democratic risk.
First, she cited Sen. Catherine Cortez- Masto’s ( D- Nev. ) exceedingly small Senate triumph in her 2022 election charge, which came out to be the closest competition in the country that time.
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During that battle, opponent Adam Laxalt came within less than a percentage of unseating Ms. Cortez- Masto, eventually being defeated by a ratio of less than 8, 000 seats.
She even cited , Republican Joe Lombardo’s effective bid to defeat incumbent Democrat Gov. In 2022, Steve Sisolak became the first former Democrat to lose the governor in any state since 2014.
Mr. Lombardo won by approximately 1.5 percentage, or about 17, 000 seats, reinvigorating Republican hopes for the future in the jump position.
Ms. Taylor even noted many factors aiding Mr. Brown’s charge against Ms. Rosen.
Second, as a battle veteran, Mr. Brown was involved in an IED attack in Afghanistan that remaining 30 percent of his system, including many of his face, with large fires and scarring. He was given a Bronze Star as well as a Purple Heart for his injuries.
He’s also taken a softer stance on abortion than some other Republicans, saying he would respect the state’s 24-week cap and openly discussing the abortion his wife had before they met. This stance is likely to appeal to Silver State voters more than more hardline anti-abortion positions would.
Ms. Taylor emphasized that the” toss- up” rating hinges on Mr. Brown successfully clinching the nomination, and said that it could be reconsidered should another, weaker Republican candidate be nominated.
A Brutal Senate Map for Democrats
Democrats facing an already brutal 2024 Senate map are only in for worse with the downgrading of Ms. Rosen’s seat.
With Ms. Rosen’s addition to the” toss- up” list, she joins vulnerable Democrats in three other seats: Sens. Sherrod Brown ( D- Ohio ) and Jon Tester ( D- Mont. ), as well as the soon- to- be vacated seat of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema ( I- Ariz. ).
Despite strong rightward shifts in both Ohio and Montana, Ms. Taylor said, Mr. Tester and Mr. Brown have built a “brand” that could help them keep their seats. But that’s a brand that Ms. Rosen, who only joined the Senate in 2019, has n’t had the time to build.
Three other Democratic seats—that of retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow ( D- Mich. ), Sen. Bob Casey Jr. ( D- Pa. ), and Sen. Tammy Baldwin ( D- Wis. ) —are currently marked as “lean Democrat”, but could also be downgraded to” toss- up” later in the cycle, Ms. Taylor said.
That could set the stage for a strong Republican repression of the Senate, where they have been largely unrepresented for the past two congresses.
Only two of the 11 Republican candidates are conceivablely open to Democratic incursion, which increases their chances of winning the Senate. Only two of those seats, Texas and Florida, are up for reelection.
Presidential Implications
The downgrading is another positive development for former President Donald Trump, aside from its impact on the Senate race.
Nevada last voted Republican for president in 2004, when the state opted to re-establish President George W. Bush in office.
Democrats lost to President Trump in the Silver State in both 2016 and 2020, losing roughly three points each.
However, as President Trump appears to be winning in Nevada for the first time in his political career, those numbers could be turned on their heads.
President Trump leads the state by 3.2 percent, with support from 47.5 percent of Nevadans, compared to 44.3 percent from President Joe Biden, according to current polls from RealClearPolitics.
If that margin is maintained, it might have an impact on the outcome of the election, potentially allowing Republicans to advance past the state’s Senate race’s finish line.
