Escalating Myanmar crisis rare opportunity for US-China cooperation

With the conflict and violence in Southeast Asia threatening both countries ‘ interests abroad, the rapid escalations in Myanmar’s civil war present a unique opportunity for potential teamwork between the United States and China. &nbsp,

While Washington and Beijing are working to improve their relationship, any consensus on Myanmar must still be overcome.

Yun Sun, a foreign fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution, said,” The Chinese are inherently cautious about what the U.S. plan is.” &nbsp,

” But I think for the two great power to at least have a discussion about where they think that the country is going, whether the crime will continue to rise, that it will get worse, which is in no one’s attention, is important”.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s three-day attend to China, which will take place between April 24 and April 26, was scheduled for debate around Myanmar, also known as Burma, according to a senior administration official.

That’s a good indication for local specialists, watching with concern the country’s heritage toward a failed state. In recent months, a partnership of insurgent groups fighting Myanmar’s military dictatorship have made ehudiating regional benefits. There’s no obvious way to organized leadership.

” The U. S. and China are in a very — sweet spot may be overstating it— but they’re in a restoration mode”, said Yun. &nbsp,

Myanmar is one of those concerns, and I do believe there is an effort to find the thing that they may work on or at least consider something to prevent problems or stop further deterioration of relationships.

China has a lot of control in Myanmar, a border nation where Beijing has provided political support to the junta since it took control in a military takeover in February 2021.

The U. S. at that time condemned the government’s jailing of the country’s political head, Aung San Suu Kyi, and responded with restrictions in the midst of military leaders carrying out crime and evil against quiet protesters.

” The Chinese have utilize, but they’re not ready to use it, because although China wants security, China does not want to put out the coup. So that is the important difference between the U. S. and China”, Yun said. &nbsp,

Experts say there’s much more that separates China and the U. S. on Myanmar than brings them up, but that Myanmar’s dark path is making conversations, and possible assistance, feel extremely serious. &nbsp,

A senior administration official stated to reporters last week, ahead of Blinken’s departure for the region, that” we have a shared interest in trying to reduce the level of violence in Southeast Asia, and the level of violence in Myanmar in particular. &nbsp,

I anticipate that the secretary will be able to outline our policy, identify the areas in which we believe we share interests, and check to see if we can at least ensure that we are n’t working at cross purposes or find a way to collaborate to achieve those goals in Burma.

On the ground in Myanmar, which borders India, China and Thailand, a wide coalition of rebel Burmese groups are making sweeping military gains against the junta. These disparate armed organizations now have control over billions of dollars in trade, humanitarian supplies, and weapons after securing significant territory close to Myanmar’s borders.

On the ground, the humanitarian situation is desperate. In April, the UN announced that 18.6 million people in the nation will require humanitarian aid in 2024, a 19-fold increase over the country’s population in February 2021.

Approximately 2.8 million people have been displaced, 90 percent of them since the military takeover. According to the U. N., there is a risk of malnutrition among children and pregnant women, and there is a rise in human hysteria across the nation.

And criminal organizations are operating with impunity, conducting massive cyber scams that target U.S. and global consumers and are being carried out on the backs of an estimated 100 000 trafficked individuals. &nbsp,

” There’s no state infrastructure, the entire state has collapsed. According to Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, men with weapons and various groups control various parts of the nation.

” The resistance has gained a lot of ground, and while the military still controls some areas, even there, everything has collapsed. The health system has collapsed, the economy has collapsed … And so part of this has meant that China, which was]the junta’s ] diplomatic backer, has definitely become increasingly concerned about all of this chaos”.

While Kurlantzick said there is opportunity for U. S. China collaboration, it’s a “modest priority” for the Biden administration, and falls far down a long list of issues Blinken is tasked with raising with his Chinese counterparts. &nbsp,

These issues include China’s role in America’s fentanyl crisis, Beijing’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, concerns about China’s military buildup, and risks facing American citizens and businesses in China. Another area of high friction is likely to be President Biden’s signature on a law that would ban TikTok unless it separates from its Chinese owners on Wednesday.

The majority of the amount of cooperation would have to come from China and, at least, other forces and actors in the area. According to Kurlantzick, some Southeast Asian nations appear to be growing their belief that the opposition will prevail.

” I do n’t know whether they’re planning contingency policies for that. But the U. S. is pretty occupied, and our avenues of leverage are pretty limited” .&nbsp,

Despite their many areas of contention, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have both committed to opening lines of communication — starting with their meeting in Woodside, Calif., in November, then talking on the phone earlier this month. &nbsp,

The goals of these more frequent phone calls and meetings is twofold: at the very least, avoid an outbreak of conflict, and when possible, seek cooperation on shared interests. &nbsp,

One of the most important China-related issues facing the Biden administration ahead of the November election is getting the Chinese government to address the export of fentanyl precursor chemicals, which are causing the opioid epidemic in the United States.

Joint counternarcotics efforts, according to Jason Tower, Myanmar’s country director for the U.S. Institute of Peace, could provide a framework for the U.S. and China to work together to combat criminal organizations operating in Myanmar through cyberscamera, one way to begin to build trust. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

” This is perhaps one area where there is a real need, I think, for the United States to raise this issue with China and to push just many of the ways that we’ve been pushing on the fentanyl issue, push for the Chinese side to cooperate, share intelligence, and be more constructive in dealing with some of these problems, lest it become more and more of a threat to U.S. national security,” he said.

The U. S. has become the No. One of the victims of so-called “pig-butchering scams” in recent months, where scammers engage in long-term scams by pretending to be friendly or romantic prospects for victims who are being conned out of large sums of money. &nbsp,

For China, its citizens are increasingly being trafficked, held against their will, tortured, and forced to work in the scam centers. And there are criminal gangs operating on both sides of the civil war in Myanmar. &nbsp,

China has significantly increased its involvement in Burma since September, and the presence of largely Chinese crime groups that have been engaging in cross-border scams targeting Chinese nationals using trafficked labor is the cause of this, according to Tower. &nbsp,

Armed groups have put the junta on the back foot in a surprisingly successful offensive launched in October, and the crisis has escalating dramatically in recent weeks. &nbsp,

” Levels of instability are much higher”, Tower said. There is a compelling argument for the United States to raise these issues right now, both because of China’s significant change in its role and involvement in the region and its weakening position.