In the midst of former US president Donald Trump’s most notable political comeback in history, Joe Biden’s apparently unassailable “blue roof” appears to be crumbling.
The “blue roof” represents three fight says: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and , Wisconsin. Trump has earn these states in order for him to win reelection.
The claims are essential for Biden according to Trump’s boom in the sunbelt says of , Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. In those four says,  , Trump , leads , Biden between three and six positions in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,  , FiveThirtyEight’s voting averages , present.
” There’s a clear split between the Blue Wall state, where the poll is close, and the Sun Belt says, where it is n’t”, wrote Steven Shepard, Politico‘s senior strategy and elections director and chief voting scientist.
For the first time in 2024, Trump held a small guide in , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,  , Tuesday’s Emerson surveys showed.  , Prior swing state , polling , showed Trump leading in , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with just Michigan leaning toward Biden.
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will determine the president, lifelong Democrat director Doug Sosnik , wrote , in the , New York Times. If Trump , wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,  , Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral vote become thin.
US President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at HoverTech International in Allentown, Pennsylvania, October 26, 2020 ( SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images ).
In fact, if Biden wins all blue ceiling state, he did win election without winning any of the , Sun Belt state. ” But if he loses all four competitive Sun Belt states, Biden ca n’t afford to drop any of the Blue Wall states”, Shepard wrote Wednesday. It’s also difficult for Biden to assemble a majority in the Electoral College without them, even if he can hold Arizona or Nevada, given the size of Michigan ( 15 electoral votes ) and Pennsylvania ( 19 electoral votes ).
Sosnik depicted , several reasons why been believes Biden faces a tougher path to election than Trump:
- Michigan is never a push- in for Biden, as it was in earlier elections for Democrats.
- The integrative partnership (young citizens, black citizens, Hispanic voters ) appears to be abandoning Biden, who needs their help in , Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
Mr. Trump currently enjoys a lead due to Mr. Biden’s declining prominence in the Sun Belt says. He is especially struggling with young and nonwhite voters there” , , Sosnik wrote in the , Times:
According to , 2020 exit surveys, Mr. Biden won 65 percentage of Latino voters, who comprised about a fifth of voters in Arizona and Nevada. And Mr. Biden won 87 percent of Black voters, who accounted for 23 % of the vote in North Carolina and 29 % in Georgia. Additionally, he won 60 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Then look at this time: A New York Times/Siena College poll released last trip showed assistance for Mr. Biden had dropped 18 points with Black citizens, 15 points with Latinos and 14 items with younger voters nationwide.
…
The outcome of the election was depend on who wins Michigan and the two Sun Belt states where abortion is most likely to be on the ballot, including Arizona and Nevada, if Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump maintain their lead in the states where they are now strongest.
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— Breitbart News ( @BreitbartNews ) April 28, 2024
Wendell Husebo worked for Breitbart News as a political scientist before becoming a Republican War Room Analyst. He is the creator of , Politicians of Slave Morality.  , Follow Wendell on ,” X” , @Wendell Husebø or on , Truth Social , @Wendell Husebo.
