Vladimir Putin, the first Russian leader to visit China for the first time in his novel administration, emphasizes the crucial role of the marriage as Beijing is increasingly under US pressure to cut back on support for Moscow’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Putin, 71, will travel to Beijing starting on May 16 and Harbin, China’s northern city, where he will participate in the ceremony marking the opening of the ninth Russian-Chinese Expo. He extended his practically 25-year rule in tightly controlled March elections. At discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he is likely to promote reversing US warnings to China over deal with his nation.
The two officials, who declared a” no- limits connection” only weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine, have met more than 40 days since Xi came to power in 2012. China, which has helped Russia wind extraordinary US and Western sanctions imposed over the Kremlin’s invasion of its cousin, has faced increasing US risks of retribution.
Russia, which rely on China as a business for its strength and as a provider of its war needs, has found an invaluable ally in China. With Beijing afraid of his atomic sabre-rattling and aware of the need to maintain unfettered access to the US-led global economic system, Putin has a occasionally uncomfortable position.
Putin’s choice to make Beijing his first international destination since his inauguration last year demonstrates that” China is without a doubt our principal lover,” according to Fyodor Lukyanov, mind of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, which advises the Kremlin. ” In some aspects, we’ve no other alternative”.
The visit comes just days after Putin appointed economist and technocrat Andrey Belousov as his new defense minister, replacing Sergei Shoigu, a sign that the Russian leader anticipates an extended conflict. Several other prominent officials, some with experience working with China, kept their current roles. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees Russia’s relations with the OPEC + group of oil- exporting nations, retained his position, while adding oversight of the nation’s economy to his responsibilities.
According to the Interfax news service, Putin will also be accompanied by both Belousov and Shoigu for closed-door discussions, according to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. A number of other officials, including Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, will also speak at the meeting, he said.
In recent weeks, the US has increased its threat to Chinese banks and exporters about the consequences of their investments in Russian military forces.
The Treasury Department announced in December that it would impose secondary sanctions on banks that facilitate agreements where Russia purchases semiconductors, ball bearings, and other equipment, even if they are n’t aware they’re doing so.
According to Alexander Gabuev, the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center’s director and expert on Russia-China ties, banking transactions between Russia and China generally have encountered difficulties. ” The chilling effect of US policy is already there”, he said.
The two leaders and their top officials could look for ways to designate smaller banks without any experience in the US financial system to handle transactions with Russia, Gabuev said.
The Chinese ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, said in an interview with Russian state TV last week that US sanctions have caused” some disturbance” in trade between the two countries. He added that” two sides are actively conducting consultations and attempting to find effective solutions as soon as possible”
Putin stated in a written interview with China’s top news agency, Xinhua News Agency, that he was confident in the economic partnership with Beijing.
Driven by Russian oil and gas sales and purchases of electronics, industrial equipment and cars, Moscow’s trade with China hit a record$ 240 billion in 2023, more than double the$ 108 billion reached in 2020.
Despite the growing economic ties, China’s exports to Russia were down 13 % in April from a year earlier, the second month in a row of an annual decrease, according to Chinese customs data. Chinese banks reportedly began preventing payments from Russian companies purchasing components for electronic assembly in late March.
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that it has become a custom for the two heads of states to visit each other during their first overseas visits of their respective new presidential terms.
However, Beijing does n’t want to be seen as tied to Russia’s war machine, he said. China wants to create a multi-polar world with partners including European countries, as President Xi’s recent trip demonstrated, not just with Russia, said Wang, who was also a former Chinese diplomat to the European Union. Xi traveled to France, Serbia and Hungary last week, seeking to promote China as a reliable partner.
Negotiating a new supply agreement with China will be on the agenda on the energy front. Russia has all but lost its position in the European gas market in the wake of the invasion, and gas giant Gazprom PJSC sees China, the world’s largest energy importer, as a replacement.
Currently, Gazprom ships natural gas to China through just one route, the Power of Siberia pipeline. Deliveries are expected to reach a 38 billion cubic meters record next year, a trend that has been maintained over time. With supplies beginning in 2027, they will increase by 10 billion cubic meters under a separate contract signed in 2022.
Russia wants to reach a new agreement with China, with the possibility of a potential new Power of Siberia 2 link through Mongolia, which could increase Gazprom’s eastbound deliveries by 50 billion cubic meters annually.
Despite Putin and Xi having a meeting to discuss the contract, a source with knowledge of the situation said that the Russian side does not anticipate a final agreement this time around.
According to an economic outlook prepared by the Economy Ministry, Gazprom’s flows to the Asian nation would n’t exceed half of what it used to ship to Europe and would be less profitable. The price for Russian gas to China would remain lower than for remaining European clients through at least 2027.
Another source of concern for Russia is Ukraine’s efforts to drum up support for a conference in Switzerland in June that will promote Kyiv’s demand for a Russian troop withdrawal from occupied territory as a prerequisite for any peace agreement.
The issue is whether China participates or not, according to Lukyanov of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. Moscow considers the possibility that the conference will prod the perception that everyone is in favor of peace, aside from Russia.
Despite a study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that was published on May 6, China is still selling more than$ 300 million in dual-use components to Russia that the US and its allies deem necessary to produce weapons like missiles, drones, and tanks.
Beijing can use components rather than weapons to support Russia, while supporting Russia diverts American resources from the Indo-Pacific, where China and the US are competing, according to the study.
For China,” they do n’t want Russia to lose” the war in Ukraine, Carnegie’s Gabuev said.
