Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu probably believes he may get away without defining a post-war strategy, according to a CIA report distributed to US authorities this year, even though the Biden presidency has launched a full-court press to push him to put an end to the Gaza conflict.
By discussing the future of Gaza in “vague words,” Netanyahu “probably believes he may preserve support from his safety chiefs and avoid defections,” according to the June 3 review, which CNN reviewed.
According to a source familiar with domestic investigating, the judgment represents one of the most recent intelligence assessments about Netanyahu’s thinking that has been distributed among senior US authorities.
It comes as a distinct shift in the Biden administration’s view of Israel: less as a reliable partner and more as an unpredictably unexpected foreign government that needs to be considered and comprehended.
The CIA declined to comment when asked about CNN’s investigating.
The analysis reveals how He is ignoring force from members of his own government and the Biden administration to establish an “end state” for Gaza and warns that Netanyahu’s statements are likely to be accurate: that he will only pursue serious post-war issues once “he has met what he sees as essential security benchmarks, which perhaps get months”.
According to the assessment, those benchmarks include completing “major military operations” — , something analysts have said is deliberately vague — as well as eliminating Hamas military commander , Mohammed , Deif.
Deif , is the commander of the Qassam Brigades and,  , as a senior commander of the military , wing , of Hamas, is believed to have been deeply involved in the planning of the October 7, 2023,  , attacks  , in Israel.
Israel has tried to target Deif multiple times in the past,  , and although he has been injured, he is believed to still be alive.
The report is in line with what CNN and others have reported in the days following President Joe Biden’s announcement of a three-pronged peace deal proposal on Friday.
At a particularly tense time in negotiations, senior Biden administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, are meeting with important mediators between Israel and Hamas.
Burns has been the main US negotiator for a potential agreement.
The US has claimed that it is waiting for Hamas to approve the terms of the agreement and that it is an Israeli proposal in the past. However, Israel’s response to the proposal has been scant at best. Privately, officials have long been clear- eyed about the difficulty of getting both sides to reach an agreement.
As a result of Israel’s bombing campaign, the relationship between Biden and Netanyahu, a former world leader he once claimed to “love,” has become more strained. Biden and other American officials have grown more and more critical of Netanyahu in public.
Officials have gotten more and more honest about Netanyahu’s motivations in recent weeks and months, despite initially the administration’s deep reluctance to discuss Israeli politics in public.
In a TIME magazine interview this week, Biden said,” There is every reason for people to draw the] conclusion that Netanyanhu is prolonging the war for his own political gain.
The US intelligence community declared in a particularly troubling moment in March that it thought Netanyahu’s “viability as a leader” was in danger, citing public distrust of the prime minister’s ability to rule and predicting “large protests demanding his resignation and new elections.”
Netanyahu must face domestic criticism for the military and intelligence underachievements that contributed to Hamas ‘ devastating attack on southern Israel on October 7. Additionally, there are significant differences between his own administration. Biden is under intense pressure from rightwing officials in his fragile governing coalition to keep fighting, even under the same pressure from him to end the war.
The CIA assessment highlights that, within Israel, there is no consensus on the postwar plan for Gaza, indicating each cabinet minister’s ranging views on postwar governance, security and reconstruction.
Netanyahu, for example, is depicted alongside a blurb noting he “prefers a coalition of moderate Arab states to manage the territory with eventual participation” from other leaders.
Other Israeli leaders are portrayed as having positions on how future administration will be governed by a diametrically opposed Netanyahu.
Overall, the assessment demonstrates how Israel’s coalition government is still polarized over a number of pressing post-war issues, supporting the CIA’s general theory that Netanyahu’s political rivals could continue to ignore pressure to lay out a strategy for Gaza once the conflict is over.
” My major disagreement with Netanyahu is, what happens after Gaza’s over”? Biden told TIME. What is the destination? Do Israeli forces “reverse” themselves?
