These days, the 2024 presidential poll seems to be going through a whirlwind, with several indicators giving us mingled opinions about the outcome. The surveys in various battleground states make it abundantly clear that this will be a close election, probably reliant on the outcomes of three states, despite demographic shifts that are, to be honest, devastating for Joe Biden.  ,
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However, it’s a ballot from a non- battle state making waves today.
Trump leads Joe Biden by double digits among likely voters in Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, with third-party candidates included in the poll. Trump leads Joe Biden by 50 % to 32 % among those voters. That’s an 18- place result.
Less than five weeks after Election Day, results are released, and neither prospect will officially accept their party’s election at their respective summer national standards.
Additionally, they come just days after Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies related to his payment to pornstar Stormy Daniels in preparation for the 2016 vote.  ,
However, the horse race results remain largely unchanged from a February Iowa poll, in which Biden topped Biden with 48 % to 33 % of the likely voters. Another 15 % said they would support a candidate.  ,
Why does this problem, since Trump won Iowa in 2020 and 2016?
For one thing, the Des Moines Register poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is famous for being exceedingly correct. Trump edged Joe Biden by seven points in the last Des Moines Register poll of 2020, which inevitably gave him the edge over the incumbent.
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Related:  , Here’s Why You Should n’t Take Trump’s Lead in the Polls for Granted
Afterwards, this is not the real reason this ballot is important. The implications that this study’s outcome has for another Western states are what really make it so significant.  ,
Meghan McCain, who is no fan of Trump, warned her supporters on X/Twitter that Trump’s large result in Iowa plausible means he’ll get Wisconsin as well.
There is no situation where Trump leads Iowa by 18 items but loses Wisconsin.
Ann Selzer’s surveys should be taken very seriously because she is arguably the best researcher in the country (undoubtedly Iowa ). https ://t.co/t QukCaCahV
— Meghan McCain ( @MeghanMcCain ) June 17, 2024
McCain is not the first to acknowledge that the Iowa DMR surveys predicts the results in Wisconsin. Anti-Trump Bill Kristol previously claimed that the last DMR surveys of 2016 indicated that Trump had” a good chance in PA/WI/MI, and could get the whole thing.”
And Trump did.
Based on recent elections, Biden would have to push the Great Lakes battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to have a chance at winning the election in November. Trump officially leads Wisconsin in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics elections with razor-thin result. However, if what McCain says is true, the polls from Wisconsin greatly underestimate Trump’s support it, which means that Joe Biden is in serious trouble of losing the election if he is actually more comfortably ahead than polls suggest.
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This theory about the DMR poll is absolutely true, as recent polls show Trump to be competitive ( even ahead ) in Minnesota, another midwestern state.
