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The northern Gaza Strip’s Famine Early Warning System ( FEWS NET ) released a report on March 18th, stating that there is “reasonable evidence” that famine will strike from March to July, with the expectation that it will start to manifest by May. On May 31, FEWS NET followed up with a second report stating that it” …finds it is possible, if not likely, that all three IPC thresholds for Famine ( food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality ) were met or surpassed in northern Gaza in April”. However, the FEWS NET analyses were severely flawed on several counts when the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee ( FRC ) reviewed them on June 4. Ironically, according to a previous IDF representative, FRC is at a higher, review stage of the same organization as FEWS NET, but in June the organization largely reviewed its own work.
Reliance by the Biden Administration. The Biden presidency relied on the job of FEWS NET/FRC to admonish Israel on Gaza’s “imminent” hunger. In a press release released on April 23rd, Salvatori Korde, the Assistant to the Administrator of USAID’s Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance, directly acknowledged this rely.” Assessments on hunger are conducted by the Integrated Phase Classification, which is the professional body that both collects and reviews information. Therefore, we may waited for their dedication”. But over a fortnight before, the March 18 FEWS NET report ( or a March 18 FRC report ) was likely the “heart- painful analysis” of “food security experts” that USAID Director Samantha Power cited that same day as evidence” that Famine is inevitable in Northern Gaza”. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on March 19 that” 100 percent of the population in Gaza is at severe levels of acute food insecurity,” in an apparent reference to the March 18 FRC report.  , That’s the first time an entire population has been so classified”.
The “risk of famine” canard continued to be peddled by the Biden administration. The Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, Ambassador David Satterfield, stated in the above-mentioned April 23 .gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3731827/austin-calls-for-rapid-increase-of-aid-into-gaza-through-all-crossings/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>press briefing that” Ghana has a very high risk of famine, especially in the north,” according to Ambassador Satterfield. Israel must take all reasonable steps to help with Gaza’s efforts to halt famine. This came after an unnamed State Department official told Reuters that “famine is both a risk and quite possibly is present in at least some areas,” but that it is not present in the north and is significant risk in the south and the center. Additionally, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a press secretary for the Pentagon and Air Force, stated in an April 4 .gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3731827/austin-calls-for-rapid-increase-of-aid-into-gaza-through-all-crossings/” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>press briefing that” Secretary Austin once again called for a quick increase of aid coming through all crossings, particularly those in northern Gaza, that are at risk of famine.“
But while apparently captivating USAID, State, and Defense, FRC burst its own bubble through its June criticism of earlier FEWS NET analyses:
Analysis based on “assumptions and inference”. The FRC acknowledged that FEWS NET relied on “major gaps in publicly available evidence,” including “direct and indirect evidence for food consumption, livelihood change, nutritional status, and mortality,” and had “relied on multiple layers of assumption and inference, beginning with food availability and access in northern Gaza and continuing through nutritional status and mortality.” In other words, FEWS NET lacked the evidence to support its claim that a famine was on the horizon. The limitations of the available body of evidence and the extent of its convergence for northern Gaza in April result in a very high level of uncertainty regarding the population’s current food security and nutritional status, according to FRC, who acknowledged that.
Analysis did not factor in shipments to bakeries or contracted/commercial trucking. The FRC also noted that the FEWS NET analysis excluded” …940 metric tons of flour, sugar, salt, and yeast delivered by WFP]the United Nations ‘ World Food Program ] to bakeries in northern Gaza”.Additionally, the FEWS NET analysis excluded the contributions of private commercial and contracted trucking, whose deliveries comprised” …about 1, 820]metric tons ] ( low estimate ) and 3, 850]metric tons ] ( high estimate ) in the month of March and for about 2, 405]metric tons ] ( low estimate ) and 4, 004]metric tons ] ( high estimate ) in the month of April 2024″. According to FRC, the estimated caloric availability in the area would have increased from what FEWS NET had predicted to be only 59 to 63 % of the population’s needs in April, compared to 75 % to 109 % and even 157 % if a higher estimate had been used. For a “more thorough analysis,” according to FRC, FEWS NET could have taken into account these food sources.
The Biden administration fabricated the falsehood that Israel was putting Gaza in danger of famine by using flawed and incomplete research. The Biden administration must permit Israel to defeat Hamas rather than resort to a “guilty until proven innocent approach.”