Make no mistake about it: the 2024 poll looks nothing like the 2020 election. Although the individuals may be the same, it’s difficult to imagine how Biden can get this election because he has lost so much ground in the districts he relied on four years ago. It’s not just me saying it.
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Next month, CNN data scientist Harry Enten drew attention to Trump’s profits among black voters. At the time, he observed that Biden’s backing from black voters had dropped by 12 %, while Trump’s had risen to 22 %, and called it a significant threat to Biden’s chances for re- election. Enten added that as Biden’s approval ratings continue to decline, Trump may enjoy historical aid from black voters.  ,
” My god gracious”, Enten said. ” This would be by far the best performance for a Republican member among black citizens in a century, two years, perhaps since 1960 and Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy. That’s how much we’re actually talking about when we’re examining this margin today; this could be a truly ancient margin. It’s really a disturbing indication for the Trump campaign”.
And the most recent surveys from the New York Times reveals how accurate he was. According to the ballot, Donald Trump is attracting 30 % of registered voters, including leansers in a two-way contest with Biden.  ,
From the crosstabs of the June 2024 Times/Siena Poll of registered voters global.
Trump getting 30 % support from dark electors… that’s devastating news for Joe Biden. photograph. twitter.com/8 7sNcIt7Br
— Matt Margolis ( @mattmargolis ) June 27, 2024
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Yet without leaners in a complement- up including next- party candidates, Trump gets 22 % support from dark voters.
This is great. Four years ago, according to liberal blogger Michael Tracey, the same surveys found only 5 % of black voters voting for Trump.
Since Nixon in 1960, who received 32 % of the Black vote, in 2024, Trump may have received the highest percentage for any Republican.
— Michael Tracey ( @mtracey ) June 27, 2024
Numerous polls from various pollsters have consistently demonstrated the same pattern, while many on the left have attempted to refute polls that show Trump lost support among black voters.
Connected: Nate Silver Drops a Truth Bomb About the Election, and the Left Won’t Like It
Biden is expected to receive the majority of the dark vote, but his support from this significant group has sunk to a point where it really jeopardizes his chances of winning the next election. Even Rep. James Clyburn ( D- S. C. ) expressed some concern about Biden’s standing with black voters earlier this year.  ,
Biden’s work to restore black citizens ‘ support, especially among the younger statistical more receptive to Trump, have not been prosperous, as this new New York Times/Siena surveys shows. These times, Clyburn claims that the elections are bad. Anyone who thinks Donald Trump may receive 30 % of the black men or 12 % of the black female voting should contact Johns Island and ask for a bridge.
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Although I would n’t bet on Donald Trump receiving 30 % of the black vote in November, the number of surveys indicating his gains among this normally Democratic voter group is too great to ignore.
