The NFL Draft is America’s most beautiful mash-up of factual, data-driven knowledge, and Ouija Board-level gobbledygook. On one hand, teams spend millions of dollars to evaluate every conceivable metric – height, weight, speed, medical history, game tape, and comprehensive background checks– but since that does n’t always work, they also rely on guesswork, folklore, and sports mythology.
Advertisement
But no matter what they do, NFL team also screw-up the document with startling consistency. From 2009 to 2018, a ten-year time, a staggering 60 percent of primary round draft picks failed to make a second lease from the team that drafted them. ( And in rounds two through seven, the hit rate significantly decreased. ) NFL teams are still more likely to fail than flourish on Draft Day, despite all the information, technology, and resources at their disposal.
Why is this?
Basketball is a peculiar game: If a baseball pitcher you toss a ball 105 MPH with precision, he can play anywhere. A record star who can run a blazing 100-yard run in one area should do just fine in another. But sports success is as much about X’s and O’s as Willie’s and Joe’s – indicating that a person who’s prosperous in one school method, against one level of opposition, might not be effective when the program changes.
It’s not just academy boys either: NFL free agency is plagued by team underspending and misinterpreting skills, paying a premium for an NFL veteran who looked great in one system – when surrounded by specific teammates– but alas, his skill set does n’t adapt to his new staff. And thus, he’ll get cut after a year or so.
Different teams have wildly different philosophies when it comes to finding new talent. Some people only look for players who fit certain traits, meaning they only look for players who fit certain traits. Others draft for accomplishments and accolades, because they believe that “winners” and “losers” are less about how big or fast you are, but something intrinsic to your DNA. A team will occasionally choose a player with enormous upside, despite the possibility that he never realizes his potential. And some teams will do the opposite, allowing them to pivot to a player who may not have much upside but can at least do a job well in a position of great need. And hey, maybe he’ll surprise you in a few years as well.
Advertisement
The distinction between ceilings and basements is fundamental. A player with a high ceiling is a child with untapped potential who could be a superstar but still be at risk of developing; a player with a high basement could at least be an acceptable starter but might not have the physical characteristics to advance.
JD Vance had a high ceiling. He was selected for his upside.
Other potential VPs had much higher basements. For instance, Tim Scott and Marco Rubio could be immediately plugged in and potentially put the Left on the defensive, especially with key demographics that the Democrats desperately need to win. And by stifling the vote-by-election bias of women, someone like Nikki Haley could have made a contribution right away. JD Vance is n’t a plug-and-play VP selection.  , He’s mostly unknown to the American people, which means he’ll have to build his own profile and name recognition.
But until he establishes himself, he’s in danger of being defined by the Democrats. And the Democrats will dedicate all of their resources to making JD Vance into an unstable extremist who hates women, ca n’t be trusted, and is a dishonest politician who knew Trump was Hitler but changed his tune when the political winds started to change. Post-assassination attempt, it’s much more challenging to attack Trump directly, so the Democrats will allocate all their weaponry at Vance, trying to label him as a risky, untrustworthy choice.
Advertisement
And it’s an assertion that could hurt Trump because his ability to nominate people and identify new political talent has been a real plus. Omarosa, Mike Pence, Anthony Scaramucci, John Bolton, etc., do NOT inspire confidence. It’s probably worth noting that the most successful, most popular members of Trump’s inner circle are Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, Lara Trump and Don Trump Jr. – all of whom are either blood relatives or in-laws. Identifying outside, non-familial talent has n’t been one of Trump’s strengths.
Conversely, with the media and/or pop-culture’s headwinds perpetually at their backs, the Democrats have perfected the art of reputational assassination, turning it into a science. Ask Sarah Palin how vicious the mainstream media can be to young, established Republicans when they first appear on a national stage.
JD Vance only has a short time to create his own brand. His greatest strength is his personal interest story: overcoming poverty, witnessing the horrors of addiction, serving as a Marine, maintaining his faith, believing in the American Dream, and understanding – in ways the Bidens and Pelosis , of the world never could – how to connect with voters who’ve been left behind. Vince needs his first televised address to be a profound autobiographical primer on who he is as a man and what drives his heart because your opposition will define it for you if you do n’t define it yourself.
Advertisement
Even though his plug-and-play upside is limited, Vance’s long-term potential is intriguing – and revealing. When a president picks a running mate, it reveals the flaws he’s attempting to conceal. Trump chose Pence in 2016 because he was a dull, conventional, and predictable politician, and because he was a political novice who needed to surround himself with knowledgeable adults.  ,
That’s not Trump’s vulnerability anymore.
As a former president, he’ll enter the White House with all the experience he needs. He is no longer a novice in politics, but he is the one who rebuilt and rebalanced the Republican Party. He’s no longer desperate to placate his MAGA critics, either, they’re no longer capable of splitting the party, for they’ve been excised from it.
JD Vance was a legacy pick. He was like choosing a quarterback in the first round and hoping he’ll improve when the starter retires. This approach occasionally works well, and you move seamlessly between Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Sometimes it does n’t. But either way, MAGA World now has its successor.
But we still need to win in 2024, or there wo n’t be a legacy to succeed.
