Make no mistake. Republicans should be concerned about abortion problems in the 2024 vote, according to Donald Trump. His views on contraception have been made clear by his attempts to shape himself as moderate in the Republican presidential debate and by the significant decrease of pro-life language. And Trump is never a bad argument host. But it can be done much.
And it must.
The unpleasant thing about the upcoming four weeks is that Republicans would already be subject to a lot of pregnancy attacks. Unprecedented also. However, the conflict at the top of the seat and the worry about losing to Trump are causing a change in what Democrats believe to be their best problem.
The Democrat Marketing System
Democrat super PACS and abortion groups already had , plans to , abortion-rights-campaign/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>spend ,$ 150 million  , on , abortion-themed , ads , in swing states, with abortion-rights-campaign/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>spending by Democratic candidates easily pushing that number over$ 200 million. But given that the projected paying for the 2024 vote is ,$ 15.9 billion  , and , massive , portions of that will be allocated for pregnancy advertising, that number is then expected to doubled.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the only major earner on pregnancy on a national level, will be the only Republican who has seen its paying increase since 2014, significantly increase in spending. In the last 20 years, the National Right to Life has almost completely vanished from vote paying, and their state affiliates are essentially unimportant.
Pro-life advocates have been successful in advancing legislation for more than 40 years, but the pro-abortion left continuously spends more money on pregnancy ads and every considerable state abortion referendum ( in some cases, by ten times as much ).
While we pro-life people have generally lobbied our companions in parliament, Democrats have marketed their pro-abortion thoughts. Democrats are excellent at selling. Us? Not so much.
And advertising thrives on large expenses. Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and Wall Street donors have offered virtually unlimited quantities for abortion advertising, and they want to see the national Democrat Party spend even more.
Democrats have remained frightened of pregnancy, and Republican sponsors have been told that the activity could potentially be won by Democrats after so many times.
An Powerful Pro-Life Information
But there is a way to succeed with pro-life emails.
Because my distinct research team and my election company, Valor America, have done the only significant research on this subject over the past ten years and have used the information they have collected to communicate properly, I am aware of this.
In order to encourage Hispanic voters to use contraception in support of Greg Abbott’s victory as governor, I founded a campaign in Texas in 2014 called the Texas Gubernatorial Project.
We used cutting-edge social science research methods to determine which messages were effective with Spanish citizens and which were not, more than guessing what does work. Most of the beliefs of our “expert” expert friends were bad. But what we ended up doing, combined with special research-based targeting, caused what may be the largest movements of Spanish voters toward Republican election in U. S. story.
In five weeks of qualified communication, we saw a motion from 27 percent aid to 45 percent assistance among Hispanic Texans on Election Day 2014, based on Abbott’s inside polling.
In 2016, 2018, and 2020, my novel super PAC continued this study along with testing of several America First and MAGA information. About 50 percent of our checks were on abortion, and we continued to discover great achievements in moving citizens, especially rural voters with Italian history, toward Donald Trump and other Democratic candidates.
What worked in South Texas in McAllen, Del Rio, Laredo, Brownsville, and Corpus Christi in Spanish language communication that was written with real, real-life voters in a remarkably real pronunciation may n’t typically work in Philadelphia or Detroit with real, real, black citizens. One-size-fits-all does not work in abortion messaging.
However, we have discovered that there are many things that work in countless demographic groups across the country.
Fear Does n’t Work
And there are many more things that never work.
Cowardice, fear, and waffling on the issue are always a problem. Voters always prefer open-mindedness to anything that seems to be manipulative and calculated.
The most foolish thing to avoid is when your opponent is loudly attacking. It would be similar to asking your opponent to play cards instead of punching you in the boxing ring.
Being aggressive about the real extremism of Democrats is always wise and effective. No one thinks late-term abortion is OK except Democrat candidates. The response should state that we want to see the end of abortion of viable babies right away, regardless of the abortion question being posed.
One could criticize a debate questioner or a Democratic opponent for trying to divert attention from the issues that voters are more interested in by raising abortion. In addition to highlighting how horrifying it is that there have been 65 million abortions in America in the last 50 years, Democrats have never placed any reasonable restrictions on abortion. This is also crucial to standing up for one’s cause.
Donald Trump is aware that pro-life advocates will need to win over people state by state to win over pro-life advocates. No federal abortion restrictions are even possible with a deadlocked Congress.
He also comprehends that Democrats will hammer us by spending twice as much on abortion attacks in 2024 as pro-life organizations will on response.
Democrats also have significant information about what to say and to whom to say it, in addition to the vast majority of Republicans that my team has studied and knows. Their attacks on us are skillful, tested, and often effective.
Punching Back and Winning
The Democrats might have a diminishing returns problem because of the many things voters are more upset about in 2024 than abortion, but that will depend heavily on how boldly our candidates respond to these attacks. Their punches will connect with the Democrats and cause harm if we cower under the table, shake and cry, and ask them to talk about something else.
The Democrats will not succeed if we back down with integrity and confidence and criticize Democrats for their extremism and for their attempt to scare voters with issues that are not actually possible for Congress to pass without 60 Senate votes.
When opponents of total bans on abortion questioned by Newt Gingrich, he would say that Democrats” seemed to support abortion up through high school graduation.”
Rand Paul famously refused to respond to a reporter’s question about his position on abortion by essentially saying he would respond once the reporter left and asked the DNC head why she was in favor of aborting seven-pound babies.
Greg Abbott’s position on early abortion was repeatedly refuted by the media in Texas in 2014 when I asked him why “my opponent supports no restrictions on abortion even in the third trimester of viable babies.”
The left knows how to ask emotional questions, and they try to get us to talk about our weaker positions. They should be forced to discuss their own extremism.
Republicans have a good year in 2024, but anyone who witnessed close to$ 120 million worth of very well-designed pro-abortion ads in Michigan and Ohio in 2022 and 2023 ( and how irate the efforts to fight back ) knows that Democrats are willing to do anything to revert the attention to their version of abortion messaging knows that.
Smart and principled Republican candidates can and will do anything to stand up for this issue, but they also must do so in support of the unborn children they want to protect.
Donald Trump is correct in his claim that you ca n’t fix anything if you do n’t win.
So let’s really work — every serious pro-life Republican candidate — on perfecting a confident, clear, and convincing response on this issue for September and October 2024.
Joe Arlinghaus is the president and founder of Valor America, a conservative super PAC that was established in 2006 to imitate the revolution in data and analytics used by the Democratic election scientists. The political right’s first major election campaign effort, Valor America, was the first to train and employ scientists capable of repurposing the methods and targets used in the most recent election cycles that gave Democrats a methodological advantage. For more information on Valor America go to ValorAmerica. org.
