It’s a phrase often attributed to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s” The Wonderful Gatsby”, but Ernest Hemingway originally popularized it. In” The Sun Also Rises”, a character named Mike describes how he went bankrupt. ” Two way. Eventually, then suddenly”.
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It’s real for foreclosures, but it’s even more true for elections.
Everyone has a breaking level. When it comes to public policy, things do n’t move until they’re pushed—but if you push hard enough and frequently enough, eventually, they wo n’t just move, they’ll break.
There’s never a wonderful time to catch COVID, but for Biden, the timing could n’t have been worse: Trump gets shot, stands tall, and rallies the nation to fight with him. However, Biden reminded voters (yet once ) that he’s a sick, elderly gentleman with a weak, poor immune system, and it’s just not realistic to assume he’ll be able to perform at an appropriate level for another four weeks, let alone another four times.
The visual lesson: Trump is therefore difficult that when he gets shot, Biden gets ill!
After Trump was almost assassinated, the force campaign to pressure Biden out had stalled. For a small, flickering time, the country yearned for balance and order, and Biden gladly assumed the role of mourner-in-chief. Politically speaking, this was his final best opportunity to portray himself as the adult who had the wisdom, spiritual conviction, and temperament to steer an America into freefall to a secure emergency landing.
And he went after it with enthusiasm, going on live TV double, including an Oval Office target. Even for a few days, it seemed to operate because the tones yelling Biden’s resignation had waned.
But it did n’t last.
It could n’t last.
The Democrats were briefly stoked by the fact that Trump was close to being killed and that neither side of the story had sufficient air to sustain their fire. Something had to provide.
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It began with a flow. At first, a few outdoor tones, mainly from the “pundit school”, called for Biden to withdraw from the competition. Then, the number began to grow. Next, sitting Democratic congressmen broke rank and went public. That percentage is currently at roughly 10 %.
The next shoe ( s ) to drop will be senior Democratic politicians and legacy leadership: Pelosi, Schumer, Obama ( s ), and Clinton ( s ). According to reports, Pelosi and Schumer have already asked Biden to reconsider his candidacy in the background and declared unflinchingly that he ca n’t win in November. That’s the final step before going public.
And eventually, they WILL go public. It’s not a question of if but when.
Biden still has a few aces to play: Legally, he ca n’t be forced out of the race ( beyond the 25th Amendment ). He controls the platform because he controls the delegations. He is undoubtedly able to ignore anyone and everyone who advises him to quit. If he flat-out decides he’s not going to leave, then he’s not going to leave.
Interestingly, if you listen to Democrats, they’re now saying the quiet part out loud. They are n’t pressing Biden to resign because it’s the right thing to do or because it’s best for the American people. Instead, they’re insisting that Biden must leave … because the rich liberal donors have stopped writing checks.
It’s a stunningly – and shockingly – brazen admission. The majority of political parties would be embarrassed to admit that special interests buy and pay for their activities. Fewer would be so dependent on money that they would excommunicate a president who had racked up sizable approval ratings from his left-wing supporters the previous month.  ,
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In the GOP, this would never occur. Not in a million years. Even if all the mega-donors sat on their wallets, the Republicans would n’t sever ties with Trump. That’s not how the Republican Party – or MAGA voters – are wired. However, the Left is only concerned with loyalty to money and not to politicians or voters.
Timing-wise, the Democrats ‘ smartest PR move would’ve been to announce that Biden was stepping down 24 hours before Trump’s speech. The spotlight would have been taken off Trump, the news cycle would’ve gotten a ( much-needed ) reboot, and the GOP would now be scrambling to reconfigure its strategy.
But now it’s too late. And it’s probably too late for the Democrats, too.
In politics ( and in financial markets ), everything is slow, steady, linear, and gradual – right until it’s not. Because when it breaks, it breaks fast.
