Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran, which has shocked the region and could cause even more hostilities and hostile measures against Israel. The Islamist movements is now frantically searching for a new head after the attack, which Hamas has blamed on Israel, and worries about the group’s course of action as a result of the ongoing conflict.
Haniyeh’s fatality comes about ten months into the latest Gaza battle, a fight that shows no signs of a stalemate. With his lieutenant, Saleh al-Aruri, even killed earlier this year in a hit in Lebanon, two names have emerged as possible descendants: Musa Abu Marzuk and Khalil al-Haya.
Musa Abu Marzuk, a part of Hamas’s social ministry, is seen as a more reasonable figure within the action. He has participated in direct discussions with Israel and has a history of supporting a Arab state based on the borders of 1967. However, his mild approach may clash with the military aircraft of Hamas, which is less inclined towards political options.
Khalil al-Haya, on the other hand, is strongly aligned with the military aircraft’s captain, Yahya Sinwar. Haya’s elevation to power may indicate a move to more aggressive techniques given his unwavering support for the establishment against Israel. He is a strong candidate, particularly among hardliners in the movement because of his personal story of airstrikes lost to Israel and his management during Hamas’s election victory in 2006.
There is also debate that Khaled Meshaal, who formerly led Hamas, could make a profit to command. In this turbulent time, Meshaal’s experience and past leadership may provide balance.
Experts are divided on the effects of Haniyeh’s death. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group believes that while the reduction is important, Hamas has “plenty of authority stuff” to maintain its functions. However, European Council on Foreign Relations ‘ Hugh Lovatt warns that the death could stifle Hamas ‘ efforts to become more radicalized and probably violent.
In Gaza, serious deaths were reported in the wake of Hamas ‘ strikes on Israel on October 7 and the ongoing conflict, which has claimed thousands of lives on both sides. Any progress made in the peace negotiations could also be hampered by Haniyeh’s killing, especially since Doha’s political leadership had been calling for the release of Jewish hostages held in Gaza.
Tehran’s attack is not a one-time incident. It comes in response to Israel’s alleged plot to kill a Hezbollah chief in Beirut in response to current rocket strikes on the Golan Heights. The situation has led to worries of wider geographical increase, with Hamas’s military aircraft caution of “enormous effects” for the area following Haniyeh’s dying.
Local experts warn that unless Israel’s most important interests are straight threatened, it is doubtful that Iran, a key supporter of Hamas, will go to full-scale war with Iran. But, the risk of spiraling murder remains, especially with different Iran-backed organizations involved in the conflict.
