Nate Silver Warns That Kamala Harris Has One Big Problem

According to Nate Silver, Kamala Harris is” a humble outsider to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a duplicate of the common vote-Electoral College cut that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 votes”.

In 2020, Joe Biden’s success depended on less than 50 000 vote in just a few fight states, which was a similar Democratic College-popular voting space. According to Silver, Harris ‘” Electoral College distance” is” significantly larger than Biden’s in his forecasted “population space.”

Since Harris is n’t president herself, she does n’t get the same bonus that Biden did. And we believe it to be true. You would n’t want to replace an elected incumbent president who won the same matchup with his VP the previous time, with all other things being equal, that is, despite Biden’s terrible polling against Trump and voter concerns about his age. Biden’s popularity was almost 2-point favorites in our basics model, but it now ranks almost exactly in a tie with Harris-Trump in the popular vote. Based on the economic statistics the design gathers, this may change in the final days of the vote. &nbsp,

Metal then explained:” What does his unit account for”:

So generally, the unit does this: &nbsp,

• Get the latest polling-based screenshot, which shows Trump away by just 0.4 points. &nbsp,
• Change for the protocol bounce, which puts Harris really somewhat away. &nbsp,
• Regress toward the fundamentals-based earlier, which shows a tied common vote. ( The prior currently accounts for 25 % of the weight, which will be gone by Election Day. ) &nbsp,

A common vote prediction based on that figure yields a 0.6 percent point difference. &nbsp,

So where does that leave the vote? She is unfavored in the Electoral College, but she is a little less common than the national popular ballot. She has a 38 percent opportunity, compared to 61 pct for Trump, and has a approximately one point chance of missing the Electoral College because of a 269-269 link ( or RFK Jr. obtaining some electoral votes ).

Associated: Kamala’s Honeymoon May Be Over Now

I think there’s one thing that Silver is n’t accounting for. Kamala’s ascendance as the nominee’s presumed nominee would, at the very least, have a similar impact on the polls as a bounce from a convention. The RealClearPolitics common demonstrates it.

Trump’s RCP is equal to Harris, which is his highest. photograph. twitter.com/avPyUfKZWY— Matt Margolis ( @mattmargolis ) August 1, 2024

There’s no question that Harris has chipped away at Trump’s direct, but that was expected. The key is whether she can keep it up or if it’s just a swing that will continue. In any case, the poll has been essentially rearranged, albeit with more Democratic support on the side of the debate. &nbsp,

In the end, some of the blue states that became competitive with Biden atop the ticket do n’t appear to be as competitive now, and we’re back to the scenario where Trump has to win just one of the” Blue Wall” states ( Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania ) and Kamala has to win all three.

” I know people do n’t like to talk about that]the Electoral College], because there’s nothing that Democrats can do about it. But the election is likely to be near, and it’s a great risk when the relationships go to Republicans”, Silver explained.

On one hand, as long as Trump wins the Electoral College, I could n’t care less if he loses the popular vote. But, if Trump reclaims the presidency without winning the popular vote, it will only add more fuel to the fight to end the Electoral College.

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