According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government’s employment growth figures for the past year are expected to be significantly revised lower.
The organization stated in a preliminary estimate that the agency’s overall job growth through March of this year is expected to remain revised down by 818, 000. That is 0.5 % of total employment, a larger correction than ordinary.
By contrast, overall employment growth over that time was 2.9 million, according to the establishment study, meaning that almost a fourth of job gains are set to become erased. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, both of whom have praised new work increases, are facing a loss with the weaker figures.
However, even with the revisions, employment growth has been solid by traditional norms. Pre-revisions, the market added 242, 000 work a month for the year ending in March. With the edits, the amount may become 174, 000. That is likely to maintain the employment level from falling.
” This preliminary estimate does n’t change the fact that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong, delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending, and record small business creation”, said Jared Bernstein, the chairman of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Former US president Donald Trump responded to the media by claiming that millions of jobs would disappear if Harris won the election and that the Biden administration had been” caught unlawfully manipulating” employment numbers.
The adjustments, though, are part of the company’s regular method for updating its estimates of work growth. They are primary, and the jobs statement for January 2025 will have the ultimate adjustments.
The BLS re-benchmarks its payroll job numbers, which are based on a regular review of establishments, to a complete count of jobs, a process that can result in significant revisions.
That complete count, the BLS’s Monthly Census of Employment and Wages, is a weekly assessment of employment and income reported by companies, covering more than 95 % of work.
The revisions bring the jobs growth figures more in line with those from the individual family study, which revealed slower job growth than the establishment survey. However, it is possible that the household survey understates the underlying growth, and the same is true of the QCEW.
WASHINGTON EXAMINER CLICK HERE TO READ MORE.
It might be the case for one reason: it is less likely to have unauthorized immigrants work there. The influx of illegal immigrants over the past few years has resulted in faster population growth and higher employment than the BLS had predicted, according to a recent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, which incorporated data from the Department of Homeland Security regarding the number of people crossing the border without authorization.
In a recent article, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that the QCEW is based on thorough unemployment insurance records, but that unauthorized immigrants generally do not not qualify for unemployment benefits.
