Vice President Kamala Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump, leading him 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, marks a significant increase from Harris’s previous 1-point lead in late July.
Harris’s lead is bolstered by increased support from women and Hispanic voters.She is now ahead of Trump by 13 percentage points among both demographics—49% to 36%—a notable rise from her 9-point lead among women and 6-point lead among Hispanics in July. Trump continues to lead among white voters and men, but his advantage among voters without a college degree has shrunk to 7 points, down from 14 points.
The shift in the race follows President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race on July 21 after a contentious debate performance. Since Biden’s exit, Harris has seen a boost in both national and swing state polls.
In critical battleground states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada—Trump holds a slim 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters. However, a separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicates Harris is either leading or tied with Trump in each of these states.
Republican strategist Matt Wolking acknowledged the challenge Trump faces against Harris but emphasized the importance of focusing on his campaign strategy to retain voter support. Since accepting the Democratic nomination, Harris has been actively campaigning in key states, including Georgia, to solidify her support.
The enthusiasm for Harris is evident: 73% of Democratic voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll expressed increased excitement about voting in November, a significant rise from previous polls. Harris’s appeal as a forward-looking candidate contrasts with Trump’s emphasis on his past achievements, with 52% of Harris’s supporters voting to back her candidacy rather than merely opposing Trump.
Trump retains support among his base, with 64% of his voters backing him due to his policies rather than solely opposing Harris. Trump is favored over Harris on economic management, but Harris holds a strong 47% to 31% advantage on abortion policy—a critical issue for many Democrats following the 2022 Supreme Court decision.
The poll, which included 4,253 U.S. adults and 3,562 registered voters, reflects a dynamic shift in the presidential race. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign on August 23, had garnered 6% support in the survey.
