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    Friday, June 6

    Nate Silver Drops Another Election Forecast, and the Left Should Be Nervous

    Updated: US News No Comments

    According to the latest RealClearPolitics national average, Kamala Harris has a 1.8-point lead. Democrats are no doubt thrilled about this, but they really shouldn’t be. Harris is running way behind both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2020 and 2016 elections. 

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    But I’m here to talk about Nate Silver’s latest forecast. In the previous forecast I reported on, from August 31, Donald Trump held a 53.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris trailed with 46.6%. This was because Trump maintained the advantage in key swing states, with the odds showing him with a 52-48% edge in the most important swing state: Pennsylvania.

    In Silver’s latest forecast from Tuesday, Trump’s chances of winning rose to 56.7%, the highest since July 31, while Harris’s chances dropped to 43.0%. In key swing states, Trump continued to strengthen his lead. He has a 57-43% advantage in Pennsylvania, 64-36% in Georgia, 67-33% in Arizona, 70-30% in North Carolina, and 57-43% in Nevada. Harris’s odds of winning are best in Michigan and Wisconsin, where her chances of winning were 51-49% and 53-47%, respectively.

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    Perhaps the most significant thing about this latest projection update is that Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College are still trending upward despite Silver taking polls from ActiVote out of his model after their polling recently showed a boost for Trump.

    Naturally, Silver tries to keep the left’s hopes up. “If Kamala Harris is able to hold her current numbers, she’ll eventually begin to rise in the forecast again as the convention bounce adjustment gradually wears off,” he writes. 

    Recommended: Get Ready for a Very Different Race Next Week

    He also has been upfront about the fact that recent state polling is not looking good for Harris.

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    So, it’s true that Harris still holds a slight lead in national polls, but polling averages only provide a snapshot of the current state of the race. It’s no small thing that Silver’s forecast shows Trump as the current favorite to win — especially considering Silver’s history of projections favoring the Democrat candidate. Silver’s forecast, while it certainly has its flaws, is attempting to predict the final outcome. While Harris initially led, her odds have dropped following an underwhelming convention bounce and weak performance in Pennsylvania. 

    Additionally, RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump may have further diminished her chances. Silver notes that the chaotic news cycle has made this election particularly challenging to predict, with polling trends now shifting back toward Trump. And with the debate next week, it’s about to get more interesting.

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