I have to say I was rather shocked by a story at Politico published Wednesday.
The story’s headline, “New Hampshire is the latest sign of Donald Trump’s shrinking map,” not-so-subtly implies that Kamala Harris is so strong she’s making it impossible for Trump to win 270 Electoral College votes.
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The headline is ridiculous. It would be like saying that “West Virginia is the latest sign of Kamala Harris’s shrinking map.”
Heck, the article debunks its own headline in the opening paragraph.
Donald Trump hasn’t set foot in New Hampshire since he won the state’s GOP primary in January. His campaign hasn’t sent a high-profile surrogate here since the spring.
And now, even as they insist he can win here, some of Trump’s most ardent supporters in this blue-leaning swing state are openly saying that his campaign should focus its efforts elsewhere.
“This election is going to be won in those seven swing states” and not in New Hampshire, said Lou Gargiulo, who co-chairs Trump’s campaign in this state. “That’s where the effort’s got to be put.”
It’s a marked shift from when New Hampshire was among the bluish battlefields where Trump’s campaign boasted it could expand its electoral map as President Joe Biden faltered.
It is true that New Hampshire was among a number of blue states that looked like potential pickups for Trump before Joe Biden dropped out, but Politico concedes that Trump never actually made a serious play there.
The article notes, “Donald Trump hasn’t set foot in New Hampshire since he won the state’s GOP primary in January,” as if this is a sign that his campaign has written off the state. But let’s not forget that Trump has never heavily invested in New Hampshire—yet he continues to outperform in the polls there compared to his 2020 margin.
Related: Is Kamala Worried About Losing Another Blue State?
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But perhaps the real problem with Politico’s attempt to paint New Hampshire as a lost cause for Donald Trump is that the article was published the same day Kamala Harris visited New Hampshire. Kamala hadn’t set foot in the state since 2021, making her campaign stop there far more suspicious than Donald Trump’s lack of campaigning there.
Does anyone really believe that Kamala Harris would be campaigning there if the state were really “off the table” for Donald Trump? Chauncey McLean, the president of the pro-Harris Super PAC Future Forward, warned Democrats that public polling may be a bit too optimistic about Kamala’s position. Perhaps New Hampshire is getting a little too close for comfort.
Let’s look at the evidence.
Before Biden dropped out, he had a three-point average lead in the Granite State, according to RealClearPolitics, and the final Trump/Biden poll showed Trump ahead by two points. Harris, by comparison, currently has a five-point average lead in the state. She’s running behind Biden, who won the state by more than seven points in 2020. Between that and the fact that Biden polled at or near double digits in New Hampshire in 2020, there are definite warning signs that New Hampshire could be a problem for Kamala.
Why would losing New Hampshire, which has just four Electoral College votes, be a problem for Kamala? Well, as I pointed out last week, if Trump wins New Hampshire, he could win the entire election without any of the “blue wall” states.
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Is this why Kamala Harris is going to New Hampshire this week for a campaign event? pic.twitter.com/gZgxaDAMok
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) September 1, 2024
What will be more telling is whether Trump starts pouring more resources into the state. His campaign is well-known for strategic resource allocation, focusing on where he can maximize returns. New Hampshire, while important, may not be a top priority just yet. The article makes clear that Trump’s team hasn’t ruled out the state, and Harris’s very presence there shows that even the Democrats think New Hampshire could swing red.
The fact that Kamala Harris had to bus in supporters from Massachusetts in order to achieve “a crowd of more than 3,000 people” is also a sign Kamala’s position in New Hampshire isn’t as strong as many believe it to be.
🚨 CBS Boston just CALLED OUT Kamala Harris for bussing in hundreds of people to make it look like she has support
This is so freaking pathetic 😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/NjryJ8odSC
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 5, 2024
Yet, according to Politico, Kamala has run Trump out of New Hampshire.
Okay.
