The storm is expected to quickly swell in Florida as a big Category 3 storms, according to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast.
As of the NHC’s 2 p. m. EDT expert, Helene remained a Category 1 storms with 80 miles sustained winds about 110 yards north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and 480 km south-southwest of Tampa as it moved north-northwest at 10 mph. Tropical-storm-force breezes extend 25 yards away from the center, and hurricane-force winds extend 275 yards.
” Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an environment of small lateral wind shear, enough economic moisture, and over waters of great coastal heat content”, said NHC older hurricane specialist Jack Beven. ” All forecasts steady to swift expansion,” read the advice.
The forecast power has it reaching key hurricane strength with 125 miles sustained winds and 155 miles gusts by 8 p. m. Thursday, just before an expected land with a cylinder ranging from southern of Tallahassee in Florida’s Big Bend region west to Panama City on the Panhandle.
That leaves it at the Category 4 level, and some climate models have it gaining that much as well.
Gov. Some regions of 16 districts were subject to mandatory evacuation purchases, according to Ron DeSantis.
” This thing’s going to be whipping through”, he said during a Wednesday afternoon press conference from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. It will cause a lot of churning and will drive that water, making it a major water event. … Consider, you hide from breeze, but you run from the water”.
He claimed that the condition had partnered with Uber to provide free trips for those living in those departure areas. He also said Visit Florida has activated emergency hotel components on Expedia and Priceline for hotel presence.
In addition to Florida’s Gulf Coast and Panhandle storms warnings and watches, the extent of the wind has now prompted tropical storm warnings that extend to Georgia’s entire east coast.
And some coastal regions have ordered emergency as storm surge was a threat from south Florida up to the Panhandle, including up to 18 foot in the Big Bend, up to 8 feet in Tampa Bay and 5 foot in Charlotte Harbor.
On Tuesday, NHC Deputy Director Jaime Rhome declared,” It is going to be a big storm, and I mean big, I mean not intensity, I mean size.” ” And big storms cause big problems. And I need you to understand one of the take-home messages.
Hurricane warnings are in place for the Gulf Coast from the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs north to Mexico Beach, Florida on the Panhandle as well as the immediate threat in Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Tulum as well as Cozumel.
North of the Anclote River and Tampa Bay are both on a hurricane watch for Englewood.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Dry Tortugas, all of the Florida Keys, the Florida west coast from Flamingo to the Anclote River and Tampa Bay, west of Mexico Beach on the Panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton county line and the east coast of the Florida peninsula from Flamingo around and north up to the mouth of the South Santee River, Georgia.
Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia counties are all under inland and tropical storm warnings, as well as Lake Okeechobee and Lake Okeechobee. The western inland portion of Marion County is under a hurricane warning.
And there are also warnings issued for Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico, and the provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth in Cuba.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the South Carolina coast from the South Santee River north to Little River Inlet.
Tropical storm conditions are expected late on Thursday in the U.S. hurricane warning area, according to NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg. ” Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday. Starting on Thursday, the tropical storm watch area in South Carolina is expected to experience tropical storm conditions.
The big worry for more of the Gulf Coast is storm surge, with a warning in place from Indian Pass in the Panhandle all the way south to Flamingo, near the bottom of the Florida peninsula’s southwest coast, but also vulnerable Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, there is a storm surge watch in place.
Storm surge as high as 18 feet could be seen in the area directly near landfall.
” It’s going to push a large swath of storm surge across the western portions of the Florida peninsula,” Rhome said. ” This area is really, really vulnerable to storm surge. Even tropical-force winds along the Florida West Coast produce significant and life-threatening storm surge, and it wo n’t take a lot of wind.
The NHC warned surge and high tide could lead to 12-18 feet from Carrabelle to Chassahowitzka, 8-12 feet from Apalachicola to Carrabelle and from Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs, from 6-9 feet from Indian Pass in the Panhandle to Apalachicola, 5-8 feet from the Anclote River south to the middle of Longboat Key and Tampa Bay, 4-7 feet from the middle of Longboat Key south to Englewood and 3-5 feet from Englewood south to Flamingo including Charlotte Harbor.
The center of Helene will cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening, according to Berg, who anticipates a northward and north-northeastward turn with a faster forward speed through Thursday. ” After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday”.
Helene is anticipated to drop 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with some areas receiving 12 inches before threatening Florida and the Southeast U.S., where it’s anticipated to drop 5 to 10 inches of rain, with some areas gaining up to 15 inches.
” This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding”, Beven said. In the southern Appalachians, steep terrain is a possibility for landslides in areas.
Inland tropical storm watches are in place deep into the U. S. up into Georgia including Atlanta as well as western South Carolina and western North Carolina.
” We do n’t typically issue tropical storm watches over the Appalachians area, especially here,” Rhome said. ” So that’s unusual. You must be paying attention, after all. There’s also a big flood threat”.
The risk of tornadoes spreading from Florida to parts of Georgia and South Carolina on Wednesday night is also advised by the NHC. They could start to form over the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama on Wednesday night.
Helene formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as a tropical storm on Tuesday morning, and has picked up steam since.
” Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and the forecast cone, especially on the east side,” Berg said. ” In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall”.
With this system, Rhome predicted that the wind swath would be significant, and it would basically carved a path over the highly populated I-4 corridor, including the Florida peninsula. ” So if you’re watching from Tampa and Orlando, you’re going to have a big wind event with this, no matter where it goes with respect to the track”.
Similar to this year’s Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Idalia from 2023, the Big Bend’s center is likely to be a target of the storm’s center, with a tighter cone of uncertainty 36 hours after landfall that extends from near Horseshoe Beach to Panama City.
” All indications are a significant hurricane impacting the Florida Big Bend, but, and this is a big but, the hazards are going to be well removed from the center and well removed from the cone”, Rhome said. Because this wind field, the wind field with this system, is going to be really large — larger than you’re used to seeing with a traditional hurricane, I do n’t want you to look at the cone and say” I’m out of the cone” or” I’m on the edge of the cone.”
DeSantis spoke Wednesday morning from TECO Energy’s staging area in Tampa as one of the areas thousands of linemen are preparing to respond to the storm.
You still have time to prepare and implement your plan, he said, but that is running out. ” It’s a big, big storm and has the potential to have a lot of impacts”.
That includes checking for potential debris in yards, knowing evacuation zones, filling gas tanks, and getting water and nonperishable food.
DeSantis urged residents to listen to local evacuation orders, and avoid the tragedy seen in 2022’s Hurricane Ian that killed 149 people in Florida, most of whom were caught in major storm surge in southwest Florida.
You’re going to see something significant because the field is so strong and the winds are going to be strong, especially in the barrier islands and those low-lying areas, he said. ” So we always say you can hide from the wind, especially with Florida structures that have been built in modern times, but you run from the water, because if that water really does come crashing in, it’s not a lot you can do about it at that point”.
At least one shelter that will let residents bring their pets has been designated in each county.
” You do n’t have to get in your car and drive 350 miles away. He said,” You can safely evacuate to higher ground.” ” There’s shelters, there’s hotels, friends ‘ houses, family. Everything is fine.
People, including some in mobile or manufactured homes, can find out if they are under an evacuation order at , floridadisaster. org.
He reiterated that even though landfall will be on the Gulf Coast, the east side of the storm will cause havoc across the entire peninsula.
You’re going to witness the storm’s more violent side. It’s going to whip up surge. He predicted that the Florida peninsula will be impacted by strong winds from Tampa Bay all the way to Florida’s Atlantic coast, according to him.
DeSantis earlier this week issued a pair of state of emergency orders covering 61 of Florida’s 67 counties. Federal disaster assistance that authorizes FEMA to coordinate all of those counties ‘ disaster relief efforts was approved by President Biden. DeSantis said he would revisit their request to see if the federal order can be expanded, which would help refund preparations some of the cities and counties in effected areas have to make.
He claimed that more than 18, 000 utility linemen were present in the state on Tuesday, and that number is growing.
He also said the state has SpaceX Starlink internet hardware available to deploy if needed to targeted areas along with tarps, generators and other post-landfall needs.
The state deployed for the first time this year during Hurricane Debby, which also targeted the Big Bend, with new flood protection measures primarily designed to protect utility substations. DeSantis intends to deploy those again, which help get the power back up that much quicker.
” I want to thank all the linemen for what you do, first of all, our Florida linemen,” he said. ” You get appreciated more during the hurricanes than in the normal kind of course of life. However, it is true that so much of our lives now depend on having the lights on and the power flowing freely, which occasionally gets interrupted by hurricanes.
DeSantis took the opportunity to remind people without power who are using generators to keep them out of the house, because of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
He also urged drivers to avoid the roads while the storm is in progress and after it occurs.
” You do not want to be on the road when you have major, major wind and rain that is happening”, he said. ” We typically will see some fatalities every year for people who are out and about past time when it would be safe to do so.”
There are 3, 500 Florida National Guard soldiers ready to assist with post-storm assistance, which can be surged to 5, 500 if necessary. Additionally, the state has mobilized more than 250 members from the Florida State Guard, as well as representatives from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, Florida Department of Law Enforcement, county sheriffs, and city police forces.
” These resources are being added by the minute, so you’re going to continue to have more linemen brought in. More beef will continue to be added to these staging areas, according to DeSantis on Tuesday.
Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said he has already had 750 resource requests in from various counties.
Because of Helene, only the westernmost Panhandle counties have escaped any kind of warning or watch.
” This hurricane will have tropical-storm-force winds in excess of 250 miles from the center”, Guthrie said on Tuesday. That will cover the majority of the peninsula from the Space Coast all the way through the First Coast and then the west coast of Florida, along with the entire coastal region of the west coast of Florida.
For Florida, the potential for heavy rains and increased winds is increasing from Wednesday night through Friday.
Outer bands have already travelled through South Florida and the Florida Keys.
The NHC said 4-8 inches with some areas getting 12 inches could fall in parts of Florida and the southeastern United States.
The storm appears to have a large wind field once it matures, extending far to the east of its center, according to National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologist Scott Kelly.
” A tornado watch is a possibility for at least parts of Central Florida”, he said.
Although there are forecasts for 1-3 inches of rain in the area, some areas could experience up to 6 inches. Winds could see gusts for 50-60 mph.
According to Kelly, “decreased moisture is pouring northward, which will encourage a higher coverage of showers and storms with banding spreading inland and setting up near the east coast.” ” These bands will not be directly connected to Helene yet but may be described as detached outer rainbands. These bands will be followed by locally heavy rain, which could lead to localized flood threats, especially where recent heavy rains have occurred.
More rainfall for the Florida peninsula could follow over the weekend after the system has passed through, which is a flooding concern with ground that may have just been deeply saturated already, he said.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to make their way into Central Florida by 8 a.m. on Thursday and South Florida by 8 p.m. on Wednesday.
All Central Florida schools opted to cancel classes on Thursday, while NASA and SpaceX delayed their planned launch of the Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station until at least Saturday.
SunRail made the announcement that it would also be discontinuing its service on Thursday.
Statewide, universities were shutting down ahead of the storm and Tampa International Airport will not operate on Thursday.
On Thursday, Busch Gardens and Adventure Island in Tampa will be shut down. Universal announced it would shut down its water park Volcano Bay on Thursday as well. Disney announced that its Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party was canceled for Thursday and that its Typhoon Lagoon water park and miniature golf courses would also close on Thursday. Because of that, Magic Kingdom regular park hours are being extended from 6 p. m. to 8 p. m.
The NHC was monitoring two additional Atlantic systems that had a potential to trigger a tropical depression or storm.
As of the NHC’s 2 p. m. tropical outlook, the more likely is a broad low-pressure system associated with a tropical wave located west of the Cape Verde Islands that has been producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity since Monday.
A tropical depression is likely to form in a few days as it moves westward to west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, according to forecasters.
The NHC gives it a 60 % chance to develop in the next two days and 80 % in the next seven.
A low pressure region of low pressure a few hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda was new on Wednesday.
” The system is currently producing winds up to storm force, and environmental conditions could support the low developing some subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next several days as the system moves generally east-northeastward, remaining over the central subtropical Atlantic”, forecasters said.
In the next two days and the following seven, the NHC gives it a 20 % chance of developing.
The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is Isaac.
The peak of hurricane development occurs from mid-August until mid-October, with the peak season lasting from June to November 30.
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