On October 1, 2024, China marked the 75th anniversary of Communist principle, a step that surpasses the Soviet Union’s 74-year career.
Driving the media
- Despite this important milestone, the Taiwanese authorities did not engage in huge events, with the exception of a flag-raising celebration at Tiananmen Square.
- This may be because the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP ) 75th anniversary is observed amid concerns about China’s political stability and whether it might face a collapse akin to the Soviet Union’s.
- Expectedly, Chinese President Xi Jinping is more concerned with the future of the group and the nation than with the accomplishments of the past 75 years.
Why it concerns
- The anxiety of a Soviet-style decline, according to a record in the Scholar, keeps Xi awake at night, and his fascination with maintaining impenetrable control over the CCP is a recurring theme in his remarks.
- China has in fact outlasted the Soviet Union during the years of communist rule, but Xi, who has designated himself as” the president for life,” is keenly aware that survival is not a guarantee of balance.
- The Soviet Union’s rapid decline, which unfolded against the backdrop of economic stagnation and social function, casts a long dark over China’s management.
- Xi’s group faces its unique set of risks, exacerbated by faltering economic growth and bubbling public anger.
- With the looming recollection of the Soviet collapse at its center, Xi has prioritized party fealty above all else, including economic growth.
The big picture
- The fall of the Soviet Union has been a constant theme in Xi’s statements, advertising strategies, and group discussions. Despite having 12 years in power, Xi still cares about maintaining inner harmony and preventing intellectual slide.
- According to him, the Soviet Union collapsed due to the side’s loss of intellectual and corporate discipline as well as financial mismanagement. Nikita Khrushchev’s 1956″ key talk” denouncing Stalin’s cult of personality is seen by Xi as the time the Soviet Communist Party began its descent into weakness and subsequent breakdown, the Economist statement said.
- Xi is determined to prevent such a tragedy. Under his leadership, China has seen an unprecedented crackdown on protest, from the destruction of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activity to the mass incarceration of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. He has also doubled down on his party’s influence on every social component, from stricter censorship of private companies to stricter repression of the internet and media.
- Some people believe that Xi’s strategy is stifling China’s economic possible, but in recent years his focus has changed from promoting economic growth to ensuring absolute democratic loyalty.
- However, Xi has been relentlessly purging leaders at all levels of government, from high-ranking Communist Party members, dubbed “tigers”, to small bureaucrats, referred to as “flies”, using Xi’s personal colorful language. Thousands of officials have been removed as a result of his administration’s range due to these purges.
What Xi’s saying
- In Xi’s speeches, the need for vigilance was often made a part in his contentions that the Soviet Union collapsed as a result of its decline. We must always be on the lookout for new opportunities, Xi said at a party congress in 2022, and he is “determined to address these unique issues that a large group like ours encounters in order to sustain the support of the people and strengthen our place as the long-term governing party.” Since that talk, the phrase” specific challenges of a large celebration” has become a mainstay of State propaganda. It has been echoed in gathering papers, scientific documents, and even a two-part state television video dedicated to the topic of preventing decline, the Economist statement said.
- In a speech to the CCP’s Central Committee in January 2023, one of Xi’s more revealing statements was made during a secret meeting. In the speech, partially released in March, he warned that” a fortress is most easily breached from within. The only ones who can defeat us are ourselves”.
- This fear of internal collapse is a result of Xi’s belief that internal conflicts and a loss of party discipline are secondary threats. The potential for factionalism is undoubtedly concerning Xi, despite the consensus that most analysts believe the CCP is currently not experiencing any immediate internal divisions. His actions, which range from the removal of senior officials to ideological purges, are intended to stop any such divisions from forming.
- According to the Economist report, Xi frequently makes references to Soviet history are not just rhetorical blathers; they also serve as a warning to party members about the dangers of complacency. In 2021, around the 30th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s collapse, a five-part documentary aired across China, blaming Khrushchev’s denunciation of Stalin for igniting “historical nihilism” within the Soviet party. According to the documentary, the party’s future was destined once it began to question its past. This myth has been reinforced in numerous party gatherings and propaganda campaigns, all of which were intended to alert Chinese officials to the importance of upholding ideological purity and party discipline.
Between the lines
- While Xi remains preoccupied with the party’s internal stability, China’s economic trajectory presents a more immediate concern. The country’s economy, once the engine of its global ascent, has entered a period of uncertainty. A declining housing market, high youth unemployment, and a population decline are all contributing factors to the pessimism that has permeated Chinese society. Many of China’s younger generations are increasingly disillusioned with the promise of the” China Dream” and are adopting a more defeatist outlook, often expressed in terms like “lying flat” ( doing the bare minimum ) or “letting it rot” ( accepting a bleak future ).
- This sense of disillusionment poses a significant threat to the CCP’s long-standing social contract with Chinese citizens, which has been based on the party’s ability to promote economic prosperity in exchange for political support. Protests over labor issues and housing have become more frequent as the economy slows down and job prospects decline, especially for recent graduates.
- Moreover, Xi’s economic policies, which prioritize state control over market forces, have raised concerns among foreign investors and local businesses alike. His focus on building China’s manufacturing capacity and reducing reliance on foreign markets, while politically expedient, has further strained the country’s already struggling economy. Many economists think that a shift to consumption-driven growth is required to stop long-term stagnation and that China’s current economic model is unsustainable. However, Xi’s fixation on party control makes such a shift unlikely.
What’s next
Like his Soviet predecessors, Xi seems reluctant to abandon the state-driven economic model that once fueled China’s boom.
Xi has increasingly attributed technological dominance and national security to China’s economic and political survival. This approach has raised the possibility of a new cold war by raising the specter of growing tensions with the United States and its allies. At home, the CCP’s tightening grip on the private sector, particularly in tech and real estate, has rattled investors and deepened public frustration.
China has announced a number of measures in recent weeks in an effort to boost the economy. The stimulus measures, which included a bold package designed to boost consumption and investment, have provided a brief respite, with stock markets posting significant gains.
However, the majority of economists concur that these actions fail to address the deeper structural issues that plague China’s economy, such as rising debt and declining labor force competiveness.
As China looks ahead to the centennial of Communist rule in 2049, the country’s future is anything but certain. Concerns will be raised by Xi Jinping’s refusal to choose a successor or establish precise procedures for a leadership transition. The Soviet Union’s instability was a problem during its later years, when internal power struggles accelerated its fall.
While Xi may put more emphasis on party loyalty and ideological purity in the near future, it remains to be seen whether this approach will help China avoid the Soviet Union’s fate in the long run. The next 25 years will be a critical test of the CCP’s resilience, and the shadow of the Soviet collapse will continue to loom large over Xi’s leadership.
( With inputs from agencies )