I recently wrote that the 2024 election wo n’t be that close. Piece of my understanding was that experts have not yet solved their” Trump problem.”
The experts have tried various approaches, different techniques. and various methods of contacting voters, all of which are intended to address the “missing Trump voters” who do n’t appear in their polls but still decide to cast ballots on election day.
Advertisement
Everyone has their own theory on how to determine Trump’s support, but the bottom line is that we wo n’t know until the votes are tallied whether or not the pollsters are successful or unsuccessful.
Given all the constitutional arguments that will be brought up by both sides, that may take some time.
No one can respond to “fundamental questions” until Election Day, according to researcher Frank Luntz.
However, surveys from the 2016 and 2020 elections can give us an idea of where Trump might have.  ,
With three months until the vote, Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by six percentage points. In 2020, he trailed Joe Biden by 10 items. In 2016, Trump also lost the popular vote by on 2 % but won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by 60, 000 vote and won the presidency. He lost the same three states in the Electoral College by about 80 000 votes in 2020, losing the popular vote by less than 5 %.
That’s how hard the experts are measuring Trump help.
According to the Daily Caller, Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia Center for Politics Director and a long-standing crackerjack pollster, claims he has” spoken with numerous pollsters who have attempted to refine their methods, but they still do n’t know if they’ve fully solved the issue of polling accuracy.”
Advertisement
” They’re very delicate equipment. And also a very effective polling company will occasionally have an unfair outlier, just for statistical reasons. You must therefore examine every piece of data at your disposal. Then, once you do that, I think you can fairly assume two stuff”, Sabato said. One of the things that better pollsters do, the ones who are more confident in their work and wo n’t feel embarrassed after the election day, have tried to make their polling more accurate by taking into account those who were hiding from the experts and who overwhelmingly favored Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, is that better polls are more confident in doing their jobs.
” And that’s a good thing. Here’s the poor information,’ cause I’ve talked to many of the experts about this. They have no idea if it’s going to work this time either”, he added.
Democrats are making the claim that this time around they have the “hidden voting.”
Simon Rosenberg, a Political strategist who studies information, said experts have corrected past strategy problems. He also made note of the fact that Trump himself performed worse than elections in the Democratic presidential elections this year, and that Republican prospects for the U.S. House and Senate performed worse than polls in the 2022 midterm elections.
He claimed that Harris and the Democrats are just as likely to win the buried vote this time around.
” The vote is truly close”, Rosenberg said. ” Everything is in the margin of error… However, because we have significant financial and operational advantages, we are also still more likely to take it out.”
Advertisement
Hillary Clinton must have held the same opinion, I’m certain of it.