Donald Trump will win if first voting patterns, including a sizable portion of Republican voters, continue to influence the outcome, according to researcher Mark Halperin. In some states, first election began, and according to reports, Democrats are outperforming Democrats in early election in battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina. We’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who will win, Halperin said on Tuesday,” If the first ballot figures stay the way they are, which is a great if.”
We’ll be aware that Donald Trump will win on Election Day if these figures hold up in the states where we can largely understand the data, he added.
Democrats in North Carolina are now back by just one percentage point in early election, but at this point in 2022, they had an advantage of more than 30 percentage points.
In Nevada, 1, 000 more Republicans than Democrats have cast first vote this time.
How important are the first voting numbers?
According to Halperin, early voting amounts need to be monitored “day to time,” and these statistics are “more significant than the surveys right now” because “it’s giving us information into a variety of factors that are counting for a Democrat overperformance by various metrics in the fight states.”
However, one drawback of relying too heavily on these early election results is that it is not clear who they are voting for. ” It can change. We do n’t know exactly who’s casting these ballots, how they are voting etc”, Halperin said.
” But every analyst I’ve talked to in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, say if this continues, Donald Trump ca n’t lose because the Democrats ca n’t possibly do well enough on Election Day”, he added.
21 million Americans have cast ballots in the run-up to November 5th, the poll time.
The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Trump leading Harris in all seven fight states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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