“The days are long, but the years are short” is never more true than during a tightly contested presidential election — and we have at least six punishingly long days ahead. Even that assumes that we know the winner on Tuesday night. If that happens, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
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But our partners at Decision Desk HQ are analyzing the early voting trends in three swing states and, if the numbers aren’t exactly a reason to break out the hats and hooters and party like it’s 1999 (with apologies to both Steely Dan and Prince), let’s enjoy a moment of cautious optimism.
Let’s look first at what DDHQ has to say about Pennsylvania since the Keystone State has rarely been so key. If you like, skip down past the numbers because I’ll have an English translation for you below.
In this morning’s Pennsylvania update, the state added 77,000 absentee ballots. 1.55 million votes have been cast, roughly 23% of the expected electorate.
🔵Democrats – 881,779
🔴Republicans – 501,736
🟡Others – 166,613Republicans won the day in votes added by 1,739. This… pic.twitter.com/eFA658KLGF
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 30, 2024
Now for the translation.
“Part of the reason the margin is closing quickly in PA is the return rate in Philadelphia,” Pruser continued. “If you remember, early on, Philadelphia was one of the big three way out in front in returns. Now Philadelphia is well behind in returns and it doesn’t appear it has anything to do with a processing delay.”
“Without Philly pulling its weight, Republicans are likely to finish ahead in overall return rate.”
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Trump lost in 2020 by about the number of GOP absentee/early ballots that were requested but never returned for whatever reason, fair or foul.
This time around, Republicans are doing a better job of returning those ballots.
That’s one cautiously optimistic metric. Or as Varad Mehta put it, “That’s a favorable sign for Rs. Whether it portends anything, though, is another matter entirely.”
For whatever it’s worth, Nate Silver puts Trump’s odds in Pennsylvania at 56.1%, and the bettors at Polymarket and betting aggregator Election Betting Odds both favor Trump there at 62%. Without Pennsylvania, Harris needs three of the highest-value swing states (Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan) to win.
Next up: North Carolina, perhaps the most vexing of the swing states.
With Pennsylvania and North Carolina in his pocket, Trump hits 270 on the nose — unless something weird happens in Alaska, as we discussed yesterday.
North Carolina added 266,000 votes in this morning’s report, bringing their total vote to 3.37 million. This represents roughly 62% of the expected electorate.
🔴Republicans – 1,148,634
🟡Others – 1,113,426
🔵Democrats – 1,106,358In the spirit of Halloween, “The Others” led… pic.twitter.com/TTk66eCeDi
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 30, 2024
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With nearly two-thirds of North Carolina’s ballots already in, Democrats are outnumbered by Republicans and by “Others.” If Hurricane Helene has indeed caused folks in the western part of the state to delay voting, that could be even better news for Trump’s chances in the Tar Heel State.
If Harris takes Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trump needs Arizona, Nevada, and two of the remaining three Rust Belt tossups. If Trump takes N.C. but loses Pa., any other two tossup states (unless one of them is Nevada) take him past 270.
Silver has Trump at 63% odds in N.C., and the two betting sites mentioned above have him at 76% and 72%, respectively.
So let’s finish up with Nevada since that’s the state that keeps blipping in and out of Silver’s Red column.
Nevada now has 774,026 voters, representing ~56% of the expected electorate.
Eleven days of early voting are in the books, and three remain.
🔴Republicans – 306,905
🔵Democrats – 264,109
🟡Others – 203,012This evening, a modest amount of mail, combined with a slightly less… pic.twitter.com/wfyymACGAc
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 30, 2024
“I’m out of clever things to say about Nevada, Pruser tweeted on Monday. “Ten days in, and Republicans will not stop.” Twelve days in, and they’re still going strong. Pruser also noted that both parties are running out of their most reliable, 3/3 voters — people who voted in three of the last three elections. Meanwhile, “Republicans expand their gains in low and no-frequency voters.”
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Silver has Nevada at 50/50, but the betting sites both have him at 66% odds.
It would be foolish to put Nevada in the bank for Trump, but the trends are good.
Nobody knows what effect Democrat shenanigans will have on the final totals, but looking at these early numbers, you’d much rather be in Trump’s position than Harris’s.
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