Both a professional poker player and a statistical specialist, Nate Silver. His political pronouncements are less than stellar, yet, and should be viewed dismissively.
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Metal gives Donald Trump a 55 % chance of winning the election. He claims that’s his “gut feeling” and no based on any statistical data. And he asserts that no poll results that claim Trump has gained momentum or that it is “questionable” have any analytical support.
According to the New York Post,” Pollsters were “herding” their figures or using previous results to alter existing ones to stay Vice President Harris and former President Trump at a point or two each moment.”
” I sort of respect experts less”, Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. ” They all, every time a pollster]says]’ Oh, every state is simply plus-one, every one country’s a tie,’ No! You’re f***king herd! You’re cheating! You’re cheating”! He fumed.
Metal makes a fascinating point. The sample size of respondents who are likely voters is more than enough. So why are the statistics in most of the seven fight state only a point or two away?
” Your numbers are n’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys”, Silver vented.
” You are lying! You’re putting your f***king hand on the level!'”
Harris ‘ result in some important swing states has been narrowed or erased by Trump’s popularity in the elections, but Silver says he believes that, after two phases in a row in which the elections were “pretty awful” and there has been a lot of criticism directed at the poll industry since 2016,” a lot of experts are throwing up their hands.”
” They’re printing a tie”, Silver said at the CNBC event, giving the example of a hypothetical pollster conversation:” ‘ Harris is up 3 %? This claim 1 %. Trump up by 4 %? Let’s say 1.5 %. There is what we call herding, where citizens are gravitating towards the discussion. They do n’t want opinions too out of line”.
If Trump’s electors are more” charged up and excited,” which may cause them to participate in more polls than they have generally, and if Harris-leaning voters are less likely to participate in polls, there is another factor that could be skewing the results.
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” Charged away and excited” Trump electors more willing to talk to experts? On that one, I call BS. Voting at the elections on election day shows how” charged up and excited” citizens are. They hang up on polls, often after a couple well-chosen, unreadable epithets are shouted into the phone.
The polling issues of 2016 and also 2018 where many pollsters bragged about how great they did have been fixed by the previous two election cycles. Because less than half as many people cast ballots, congressional votes are always more precise. They’re more repetitive by concept.
But on the day of the 2020 election, Joe Biden was presumably winning by seven points. He ultimately received about quarter that much more than Trump. Poles have made an effort to increase. It does n’t look like they’ll do much better in 2024.
The elections in new elections have been off by three to four factors” carefully, across the board”, Silver said, but new little moves in elections favoring Trump are” swamped by the doubt… tripping off the noise, basically”, he said.
Five percent of people response surveys,” and they are weird”, Silver said.
Most people no longer have landline devices, which were essential for previous election cycle poll. ” Old white people answer the phone, but some vote”, he added.
Trump’s popularity is undeniable over the past two months. There’s also no question that he was behind before his boom, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In all three of those crucial says, it’s definitely still tight.
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Gold is very courageous for going out on a very long arm and putting a wager on Trump winning in vain. I do n’t know whether he or anyone else can be certain, but I would be reasonably confident in stating that it’s much closer than many Republicans think.  ,
