Polling professional Nate Silver alleged that the pollsters were fabricating information about a close election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and that these surveys are “herding,” using existing poll outcomes to influence new polls, and that this result is the same as a nearby surveys in which only one member is up by one place. The true field will not be this shut, the professional warned. ” In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less, they all, every time a pollster ( says ) ‘ Oh, every state is just+1, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f***king grazing! You’re cheating! You’re cheating”! Metal said on his radio.
” Your numbers are n’t all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your f***ing hand on the size”!
Metal claimed that the majority of pollsters, aside from the New York Times, are” only f***ing punt on this vote.”
” If a researcher not publishes any amounts that surprise you, then it has no price”, he said.
In his last projection, Silver said his projections are incredibly stable. ” Kamala Harris ‘ winning chances are 46.2 per share and Donald Trump’s are 53.4 per share. That’s pretty close to a gold flip, in other words”, Silver’s projection early Thursday said. Late on Thursday, he updated that it will be “decidedly rougher for Harris”.
Up until mid-October, Nate Silver himself kept predicting a nearby contest. His forecast was based on his judgment of Donald Trump, who he claimed in an opinion piece published by the NYT that he had a gut feeling about it.
” My gut says Donald Trump. And I would assume that it is true for some agitated Democrats. But I do n’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you may withdraw yourself to the fact that a 50-50 projection really does mean 50-50. And you should be aware that those predictions are incorrect, and that could also apply to Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump,” Nate Silver wrote on October 23.
