In the final weekend before the election, there is no shortage of polls to react to. Perhaps the biggest poll making waves right now is the latest Des Moines Register poll, conducted by the notoriously accurate Ann Selzer, showing Kamala up three points. Selzer’s reputation gave the poll a ton of significance, even if there’s little indication that anyone actually believes Kamala has a chance in Iowa.
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However, there’s another poll that should be getting a lot of attention right now, the latest from AtlasIntel—the most accurate pollster in 2020. Last week, their poll ha Trump ahead in six out of the seven battleground states. The only state showing Kamala ahead was Wisconsin, by a mere 0.2 points.
But the latest poll from AtlasIntel is a bit different.
First, I should point out that Trump is ahead nationally 49% to 47.2%
ATLAS POLL – AMERICAN ELECTIONS
Kamala Harris’s support remains stable since the launch of her campaign. Trump shows a slight fluctuation, reaching 49% in voting intention.
🔴 Trump: 49%
🔵 Harris: 47.2%
⚪ Others/undecided: 3.8% pic.twitter.com/WByeX1ltQ5— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
What really speaks to the reliability of their poll is the stability of their results:
HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO
In the scenario with only Trump and Harris, stability is maintained, with a slight fluctuation favoring the Democrat in voter preference – Trump’s margin goes to 1.5%.
🔴 Trump: 49.8%
🔵 Harris: 48.3% pic.twitter.com/cVof9wOUTJ— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
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As for the battleground states, the newest poll has Trump ahead in all seven swing states, including Wisconsin. If that wasn’t good enough news for you, his lead is outside the margin of error in three states: Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Related: There’s a State Missing From Kamala’s Current Campaign Schedule
In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump holds modest leads, outpacing Harris by 3.4 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively. His biggest leads are in Arizona and Nevada, where his advantage reaches 6.5 and 5.5 points. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the race is closer, but Trump maintains slight leads, with margins ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 points. Overall, while the race remains tight in some states, Trump has managed to secure a consistent edge over Harris throughout these battleground regions.
ATLAS POLL – SWING STATES
Trump leads in the swing states, with particularly significant margins in Arizona and Nevada. The race remains tight in the key states of the Rust Belt (MI, WI, and PA). pic.twitter.com/UFStAWretz
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
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This poll translates into a Trump Electoral College victory of 312-226.
The latest poll from @atlas_intel, the most accurate pollster of 2020.
🟥Arizona: Trump +6.5
🟥Nevada: Trump +5.5
🟥North Carolina: Trump +3.4
🟥Georgia: Trump +2.5
🟥Pennsylvania: Trump +1.8
🟥Michigan: Trump +1.5
🟥Wisconsin: Trump +1.0Trump: 312 ✔️
Harris: 226 pic.twitter.com/Fipzy8DnDI— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) November 3, 2024
So, this may be one poll, but it’s from a reliable pollster. In the end, the only poll that matters is on Election Day, so make sure you get out there and vote.
For our VIPs: What if Trump Wins the Popular Vote, But Loses the Electoral College?
