What Every Conservative Fears Today

First Anxiety: &nbsp, Is the repair in?

Eight years ago, 55 % of Republicans had belief in the reliability and integrity of our national elections — never a huge lot, but a lot however. By 2020, that number had dropped to 44 %. And now, in 2024, it’s simply 28 %.

To set that amount in view, in 1984, ABC’s nighttime information show” 20/20″ did an exposé on professional wrestling. ( Theinfamous incident in which wrestler Dave Schultz slapped John Stossel in the face. ) According to an informal poll conducted by ABC, 25 % of wrestling supporters believed it to be true.

So… the proportion of Republicans who also believe are votes are “real” is essentially the same as 80s-era pro wrasslin’ true-believers! We are aware of how that turned out.

When less than three out of ten Republicans believe our elections are good and reasonable, it’s not just a difficulty, it’s an existential crisis. Furthermore, I do n’t think we’ve hit rock bottom yet. The Republican portion will fall to the single digits if any strange pro-Harris antics are discovered that cost Trump the vote.

We ca n’t maintain a functional, two-party democracy if 90-plus percent of one party believes the fix is in.

Of course, the GOP ( and MAGA’s legal staff ) have now had four long years to study the autopsy of the 2020 election and pursue tactical remedies. It’s not as though this vote has snuck up on them.

But is it much?

Next Fear: Has the prediction model changed?

All election projections are based on projections, and all estimates are based on profiles. ” Professionals” then plug in the latest figures and derive meaning. For the most part, their solution has been rather simple: Get adequate people on the phone whose previews correlated with the public, ask’ em questions, and publish the results. It was n’t perfect, but usually, enough polls over enough time would give you a fairly decent projection.

At least, they used to — up when people also talked to neighbors on phones. But this is 2024. We are a fundamentally different tradition, but we still rely on the calculations of the past. &nbsp,

Garbage in, garbage out: a weak method will give you flawed benefits.

Secondly, we are aware that GOP voters are turning up early because the election season is over. ( Full disclosure: I voted over the weekend, too. ) GOP first voting has dramatically increased.

Will this result in fewer vote for us on Election Day? If so, how many fewer?

The 2020 MAGA plan was to create an Election Day lead that’s so big and so unimaginable, those harder-to-authenticate mail-in ballots was n’t beat it. That plan failed. But unless we’re picking up scores of new voters, simply dividing our vote between mail-in and in-person wo n’t change the final results.

It’s a numbers game. We need bigger amounts.

Next Fear: How good is our earth campaign — and how great is their floor campaign?

PR has a fatal flaw in the final days of a political plan: It tracks view, not real. A PR professional can immediately identify a lead if it is perceived as being from Trump. However, PR may lead you astray with misleading positive if the notion is incorrect.

PR operates on the idea that when people lie, they are really telling you the truth about what they want you to consider. Often, their language and positioning highlight their purpose.

Usually.

However, PR wo n’t pick it up if the Democrats are sat on a well-executed ground game that consistently gets the vote, which MAGA is n’t. It’s never within our jurisdiction. My crystal game is unnecessary. &nbsp,

We wo n’t know until it’s too late.

Please do n’t misunderstand: I’m not saying any of these fears WILL come true. I still think there’s about a 60 % likelihood of Trump winning the election, and a 55 ( ish ) % chance of enough swing states breaking MAGA that it’s an electoral landslide.

In poker parlance, we have a very great hands. More often than not, this side is better than your enemy’s. Poker players who have our hands will typically win the majority of the moment.

But I’d be lying if I said we’re sitting on a royal flush. &nbsp,

Connected: Growing Symptoms of a Trump Landslide: Has the Media Tipped Its Hand?

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