North Carolina voters have decided the state’s 14 races for the U.S. House of Representatives. Republican candidates flipped three seats from blue to red.
The Tar Heel State went into the formidable 2024 national elections with an even split of seven Republican and seven Democratic reps. The state’s representation now stands at 10 Republicans and three Democrats. (District 1 has yet to be called but is leaning heavily towards the Democrat incumbent.)
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With the new Republican congressional representatives, the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives currently stands at 203 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with 44 seats undecided as of this writing. Whichever party wins 218 seats will be the majority. Decision Desk HQ currently projects the final result to be 218 Republican seats and 217 Democrat seats. While this razor-thin majority will prevent Republicans from enacting many things without making concessions, they will nonetheless retain control of committees and set the agenda.
The 2020 United States census found that North Carolina had a population of 10,975,000 — an increase of 11.7% from the 9.6 million souls who lived there according to the 2010 census. The new congressional district map drawn up by the North Carolina General Assembly has been contested, notes 270toWin:
In late 2023, the General Assembly enacted new maps heavily favoring Republicans. While new litigation has been filed, the updated maps will be effective for at least 2024 elections, given the early date of the state’s primary.
Districts 6, 13, and 14 are highly likely to flip to the GOP under the new lines. All three Democratic incumbents are retiring or running for another office. The three districts are now among just eight Trump-Democratic districts nationwide. These are districts represented by a Democrat, but which Donald Trump won in 2020.
District 1, held by Democrat Don Davis, was also made somewhat more favorable for Republicans. It is expected to be the only truly competitive district in 2024.
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For reference, here is the General Assembly of North Carolina’s official Congressional district map:
You can view individual results from Decision Desk HQ here:
Related: Trump Wins N. Carolina
In the U.S. Senate, North Carolina is currently represented by Sens. Thom Tillis and Ted Budd, both Republicans. Senior Sen. Tillis was first elected to the Senate in 2014 and reelected in 2020. Junior Sen. Budd won his seat in 2022.
In North Carolina state-wide races, Democrats did well. They broke the veto-proof Republican supermajority in the North Carolina General Assembly, elected a Democrat, Josh Stein, as governor, and flipped the lieutenant governor seat from red to blue by electing Rachel Hunt. Yet the state went for Trump over Harris by 51.1% to 47.7%. And thus, North Carolina retains its reputation for being a complex and truly purple state for another cycle.
NC Dems this morning breaking the supermajority, flipping the Lt Gov office, and holding onto the 1st congressional district pic.twitter.com/WjfGrP7KHA
— It’s Fall 🙂 (@BizzlePep) November 6, 2024
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