Only a few months ago, everyone was unique. Recall?
Iran was on the defensive. Replete with petro-dollars ( and just plain dollars, kindness of the Trump administration ), the Egyptian mullahs were evidently the ascending energy in their area. However, Israel was ravaged by criminal invaders, their one-proud intelligence services and military were exposed as inadequate. The Persian proxy forces surrounding the Jewish homeland ( as well as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and more ) kept a cannon pointed at their opponents ‘ faces. In the Middle East, this was the New World Order.  ,
Advertisement
America’s friends were on their feet.
Iran thundered in horrific language: Israel may be destroyed! Death to America! Destroy the heretics! Kill the Jews! The potential is theirs!
General Ali Fadavi, the deputy chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, sighed told the media,” Iran’s reply to the Zionist anger is significant. With one functioning, we are able to completely destroy Zionism.
At least, Fadavi felt that way on October 31, when he issued that speech. Since then, America had a pretty big presidential vote. ( You might’ve heard about it. ) But if you have n’t, here’s the highlight: The crazy, scary Orange Man is back in the saddle.
And immediately, Iran’s singing a drastically different tune.
It was released on Thanksgiving Day, so most people probably did n’t see it, but The New York Times released a fascinating story yesterday:” With Trump Returning and Hezbollah Weakened, Iran Strikes a Conciliatory Tone” . ,
The sub-header:” As Iran faces domestic and foreign problems, its bombastic language on the United States and Israel has given way to indications that it wants less fight”.
The comparison is striking: Only weeks prior, Iran was vowing to absolutely eviscerate its enemies. No agreements, no instances! And amazingly, the earth was generally falling into range: Biden actually pressured America’s allies to “respond in percentage” to Iranian missile attacks on human targets.
But after Election Day? The Iranian Sea Change was also mentioned by The New York Times:
Advertisement
In mid-November, Iran dispatched a leading national to Beirut to attempt Hezbollah to take a cease-fire with Israel. Around the same moment, Iran’s U. N. adviser met with Elon Musk, as song to President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inner circle. Additionally, it will hold discussions with Western nations in Geneva on a range of problems, including its nuclear programme, on Friday.
Get ready for the cash phrase:
Five Egyptian officials, one of them a Revolutionary Guards part, and two former officials said , the choice to adjust was prompted by Mr. Trump winning the Nov. 5 vote, with concerns about an unexpected chief who, in his first term, pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. ]emphasis added]
During the Nixon times, we called it the tyrant concept: When unusual opponents don’t determine the actions of a “mad” U. S. leader, they’re immediately risk-adverse. It’s a very old idea: Niccolo Machiavelli wrote in 1517 that sometimes, it’s” a very wise thing to simulate madness”.
But there’s nothing “mad” about it.
All nations make risk-reward calculations. It’s unusual for a country to deliberately court their own destruction, getting deposed, murdered, and your corpse sexually violated is n’t a lot of fun — and the memory of the ex-Libyan strongman is still fresh in the minds of Muslim leaders.
Most foreign leaders have decent quality of life. And so, they want to keep living. It’s awesome to be in charge!  , Perhaps Mel Brooks said it best:
Advertisement
Â
His understanding and understanding of leverage are one of Donald Trump’s greatest assets. He is aware of how to use it against others, and he is aware of how it feels when it is used against him. For over 50 years, he’s used negotiating leverage to gain concessions and improve his hand in real estate, business, government contracts, politics, and financial loans. It’s fundamental to how Trump sees the world: Life is a deal.
However, the Democratic Party and Joe Biden have different viewpoints on the world. Life is n’t about brokering deals, it’s about liberal values and utopian ideals. Instead of dealing with countries— like Iran— as they actually are, the Obama-Biden-Harris triumvirate dealt with Iran as they hoped it would one day be: A peaceful, trustworthy nation that surely would n’t nuke anyone ( or fund terrorism ).
And so, he rewarded the mullahs with money. He stymied the Israeli response. He ordered Netanyahu not to attack Hezbollah. The Iranians ‘ funding of their terrorist proxies gave them the authority to attack allies and stifle global commerce, but he did nothing about it.
The Iranians did exactly what you’d expect them to do: They acted in their own self-interest. We gave them an inch, they took a mile.
But no more.
Hezbollah and Hamas have been destroyed by Israel. They opted to ignore Obama-Biden-Harris and handle things on their own. And in the process, they shattered Iran’s hand.
Now, if you’re a Democratic thought-leader, this is a very bad thing: Liberals believe that nations like Iran are motived by insecurity — that all we need to do is let them know we wo n’t attack’ em, and they’ll be good little boys and girls. Thus, all the problems in the world are America’s fault … for scaring, intimidating, and bullying other countries.
Advertisement
Flawed worldviews lead to flawed results.
Iran is n’t motivated by insecurity, Iran is motivated by self-interest. When you’re not a superpower, your actions are n’t driven by utopian ideals, but risk-reward calculations: How much can we get away with before the cost is too great?
During the Obama-Biden-Harris years, they read the numbers one way. With Trump, it’s an entirely different calculation.
It’s not just morning again in America: It’s morning again in the Middle East, too.
