With 2.2 million California vote still uncounted, Kamala Harris will receive 7.5 million less vote than Joe Biden did in 2020, according to Karl Rove’s article from next month. With the seats then in, we see Donald Trump received 77.3 million votes global this month, 3, 056, 000 more than his 72.25 million in 2020.
By comparison, Harris received a whopping 6, 267, 500 fewer than Biden did. Where did Biden’s 2020 citizens and their seats go in 2024?
Yet if half of the 6 million went to Trump’s 3 million progress, this still leaves the question of what happened to Biden’s 3 million who forsook Harris. We know they didn’t get to third-party individuals, because the numbers for third-party individuals declined 656, 000 in 2024, from 2, 272, 500 in 2020 to 1, 616, 600 ( all numbers are balanced ).
Next, let’s see where Trump improved his vote count in 2024 over 2020. He obtained his extra 6 million from all but ten states: Alaska ( down 5, 500 ), Hawaii (-3, 000 ), Indiana (-9, 600 ), Kansas (-12, 400 ), Louisiana (-47, 000 ), Mississippi (-8, 800 ), Oregon (-39, 000 ), Washington (-53, 600 ), West Virginia (-11, 900 ), Wyoming (-1, 000 ). In each of these ten says, Harris ‘ 2024 votes declined from 2020 about twice or more than Trump’s collapse, but his fall did not help her.
Using vote totals rounded from the 2016 and 2020 Federal Election Commission benefits and the most recent findings from the 50 states and D.C. for 2024, Harris ‘ numbers in 44 claims were lower than Biden’s, in my opinion. Harris improved the 2024 vote count over Biden’s 2020 score in just six state. Compared to Biden, Utah’s voting for Harris increased by just 2,300.
The other five were jump state, discussed above. Surprisingly, although Harris improved on Biden in these six says, Harris was also eclipsed by Trump’s changes and he won all six states. In chronological order, let’s see what happened in the seven jump says:
- Arizona: Harris declined by 89, 000. Trump improved his 2020 ballot by about 8, 600. Third-party individuals dropped from 53, 000 to 18, 300.
- Georgia: Harris improved 74, 400, but Trump improved by more than triple that, by 201, 000, third-party seats dropped from 63, 000 to 18, 000.
- Michigan: Harris improved by 12, 700, but Trump improved by 43 days as much, 556, 700, third-party seats were about yet.
- Nevada: Harris improved a meager 1, 700, but Trump improved by 81, 200.
- North Carolina: Harris improved by 31, 100, but Trump improved by more than four times that amount, 139, 500. Third-party seats declined from 61, 000 to 24, 700.
- Pennsylvania: This is another position where Harris declined, by 35, 000, Trump improved by 165, 600. Third-party vote declined from 80, 500 to 34, 500.
- Wisconsin: Harris improved 37, 200 but Trump improved by more than twice that, 87, 600. Third-party vote declined from about 40, 000 to 30, 000.
Next, let’s test ten additional states ( also in chronological order ):
- California: Trump improved by a respectable number, 75, 700, but Harris earned 1, 834, 800 fewer votes than Biden had. Third-party seats climbed about 100, 000, from 269, 000 to 365, 400.
- Colorado: Trump improved by a reasonable volume, 13, 000, but Harris had 75, 800 fewer seats. Third-party seats were nearby.
- Connecticut: Trump improved 22, 000, Harris was down 89, 000, third-party votes were near.
- Florida: Trump climbed 441, 000, Harris was down 614, 000, and third-party seats cut in half, from 85, 000 to 43, 000.
- Illinois: Trump moved away, but just 2, 000, Harris fell 91, 000, third-party seats climbed somewhat from 97, 000 to 101, 500.
- Massachusetts: Trump climbed 84, 300, Harris fell 255, 500, third-party vote declined from 65, 500 to 26, 500.
- New Jersey: Trump rose 84, 900, Harris fell 387, 700, third-party vote rose from 46, 000 to 62, 500.
- New York: Trump rose 194, 100, Harris fell 625, 800, third-party seats cut in half, from 83, 000 to 47, 000.
- Texas: Trump climbed 503, 100, Harris declined 423, 750, third-party seats cut in half, from 160, 000 to 82, 700.  ,
- Virginia: Trump was away 112, 700, Harris dropped 78, 200, third-party seats cut in half, from 65, 000 to 35, 000.
Again, it’s unclear where the Democrat voting went in 2024, since only half of the missing seats between 2020 and 2024 may have gone to Trump and none to third-party individuals. Sometimes they stayed back, as Rove suggests? Or was it that the Democratic vote in 2020 was somehow inflated— perhaps it wasn’t real ( i. e., wasn’t legal ), as Rove rejects?
It certainly does appear that, for some reason, Biden’s 2020 ballot full of 81 million was an exception, since it was a whopping 15 million more than Hillary Clinton’s voting full in 2016. At the same time, but, Trump’s 2020 full of 73 million was 11 million over his 63 million in 2016, and there is no state that Trump’s 2020 full was inflated by improper votes.
If Biden’s 2020 ballot was an exception, then maybe we should appear at Clinton’s 2016 ballot for some kind of benchmark. How did Harris would by assessment? Ultimately, Harris had 75 million in 2024 compared to Hillary’s 66 million in 2016.
In 47 state, Harris did noticeably better than Clinton did. In Pennsylvania she did a quarter million better, in Texas by 1 million, and in Virginia by 400, 000. She declined from Hillary in just three claims, and then only by a little: Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
For an extra research place, let’s look at how Trump did in 2024 over 2016. Trump garnered 77.3 million votes in 2024 versus 63 million in 2016, an development of more than 14 million. He improved dramatically in every condition except Maine, where he improved by simply 2, 500 seats.
Here are results from 13 states, including all seven swing states ( in alphabetical order ), that account for more than 7 million of Trump’s 14-plus million improvement: Arizona ( Trump went up 500, 000 ), California (up 1.5 million ), Florida ( 1.5 million ), Georgia ( 500, 000 ), Michigan ( 500, 000 ), Nevada ( 250, 000 ), New Mexico ( 100, 000 ), North Carolina ( 500, 000 ), Pennsylvania (600, 000 ), South Carolina ( 300, 000 ), Utah ( 350, 000 ), Virginia ( 300, 000 ), Wisconsin ( 300, 000 ).
But, why was Biden but high in 2020 and Harris but low in 2024?
James M. Thunder has stopped practicing rules. He is the creator of more than 250 publications on laws, public policy, history, biography, and religion. He is the co-author of a forthcoming book of memoirs of the 49 men and women who have served as U. S. counsel for Washington, D. C., since 1801.
