Iran, the ninth-largest oil producer in the world, doesn’t have enough energy to keep the lamps on or the businesses humming — and that’s just one aspect of the country’s growing polycrisis.  ,
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According to a weekend record in the New York Times,” the country was almost shut down to keep power” for the majority of last week. Yet President Masoud Pezeshkian can’t disguise the range of the country’s power troubles. ” We are facing very grave imbalances in fuel, electricity, power, water, wealth, and atmosphere”, he admitted in a live TV tackle this month. ” All of them are at a level that may turn into a crisis,” the statement reads.
” Businesses, institutions, colleges, officers facilities, supermarkets and government agencies are all shut. 17 power plants have been shut over”, Ashley Rindsberg posted to X on Saturday. ” An Iraq-Irani resident who witnessed both the rebellion of 1979 and the Iraq-Iran War claims he has never experienced this degree of chaos.”
After years of neglect and incompetence, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has taken increasing power of the country’s power output and export in recent years. You’d think things would have turned out just as well if you let the army manage things. ” If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert”, Milton Friedman quipped, “in 5 times, there’d been a scarcity of dust”.
Sometimes it takes longer than five decades, but ultimately government meddling ends in a lack of needed products or an excess of unnecessary items, or both.
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President-elect Donald Trump will presumably recover his” Maximum Pressure” sanctions on Iran, dealing yet more knocks to the country’s weak economy.  ,
In international affairs, Tehran has suffered one shame after another.
The Islamic Republic had become the obvious power that the Americans and Israelis appeared to be unable to stop, Reuel Marc Gerecht  reported for The Dispatch on Monday. However, the rules were changed by the Hamas evil conquest of southern Israel. Jerusalem no greater felt any need for caution. — not even by Washington. Granted, that was with foolish Joe Biden officially in cost, but also.  ,
Since therefore, Israel has nearly completely eradicated Hezbollah in Lebanon and almost completely eradicated Hamas in Gaza. Both were Iran’s intermediaries. In a thunder rebel battle that Turkish President Recep Erdoan had backed seriously, Bashar al-Assad’s Russo-Iranian substitute state in Syria fell earlier this month.
It’s a very good guess that neither the Revolutionary Guards ‘ senior leaders nor the supreme leader had any idea that a protracted Israel’s de facto alliance with Erdoan would cause the” Shiite crescent” to swell throughout the Middle East, Gerecht said.
That’s the point about black swan events — they’re impossible to predict.
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Iran’s neo-Persian Kingdom is no longer a threat, aside from the Houthis in Yemen, who are in any case more of a proper irritant than a proper threat.  ,
Also keep in mind that, in a large attack last October, the Israeli Air Force nearly completely destroyed Iran’s atmosphere defenses. Tehran could well be second on Israeli’s record as Bibi Netanyahu continues to” live all community company” in Oct. 7’s awake.  ,
Finally there’s this object, courtesy of Sohrab Ahmari, that came at me from thus far left that I’ve only recently begun to approach it.  ,
If you speak Persian, this is even more impressive than the description below suggests.
An arch-insider says, based on his journeys around Iran, that up to 70 % of the people backs a dynastic recovery.
Because they associate the Pahlavi age with growth. 1/2 https ://t.co/bZCznjSbYZ
— Sohrab Ahmari ( @SohrabAhmari ) December 23, 2024
“]The inside ] adds that the people who’ve reached this analysis are well aware of the deficiencies of the Pahlavis. They are happy that Reza Pahlavi, the successor to the ousted Shah, has acknowledged these deficiencies and pledged to fix them.
None of this indicates that a regime change is good or inevitable. Recurring island-wide disruptions hit Cuba this year, along with the typical food and fuel scarcity. The state relies on tourism for much of its hard currency demands, but — surprise! — tourists don’t little love sitting in the dark. Juan Carlos Garcia, the island state, reported earlier this month that the island nation received only 2.2 million international visitors this month, which is a million less than anticipated and less than half of pre-pandemic rates.
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Nevertheless, the Communist government that has existed since 1959 does not appear to be disintegrating.
” The Egyptian government is resourceful”, Rindsberg reminds us. ” But this feels unique”.
Recommended:  , You Want Peace? This Is the Way You Win Peace.
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