Russian President Vladimir Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met in Moscow on Sunday, making a unique visit as the Ukrainian gas agreement that allows Russian gas to transit through Ukraine is about to expire.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, had stated on Thursday that Kyiv had consider continuing to transport Russian gas, but only if Moscow didn’t receive payment until after the battle, a requirement that it was unlikely to accept. Putin stated that the day that it was obvious that Ukraine would not be able to give Russian gas through Europe without a new agreement.
Here is what would happen if Ukraine’s gas transit is fully disabled, and who would be the most impacted.
How large are the levels?
Ukraine provides comparatively smaller amounts of Russian gas to Europe. Only 8 % of the country’s peak gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-19 came from Russia, which shipped about 15 billion cubic meters ( bcm ) of gas via Ukraine in 2023.
Russia spent the next 50 years trying to increase its share of the German oil business, which was 35 % at the time.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which prompted the EU to reduce its dependency on Russian oil, Moscow has lost ground to rivals like Norway, the United States, and Qatar.
After losing Russian supplies, EU oil prices rose in 2022 to report spikes. According to EU leaders and dealers, the protest won’t be repeated because the remaining volumes have small volumes and few customers, according to the EU.
Ukrainian course
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod network brings gas from Siberia via the city of Sudzha- which is now under command of Russian defense forces- in Russia’s Kursk region. It therefore flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the oil pipeline splits into trees going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Despite a stoppage of flows from Gazprom to Austria’s OMV in mid-November due to a legal dispute and constitutional wranglings as another buyers stepped in to get the volumes, Russia’s total gas exports have continued.
Austria also receives most of its oil via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary’s gas imports.
About two-thirds of its needs are met by Slovakia, which imports about 3 billion cubic meters from power giant Gazprom annually.
Last year, the Czech Republic almost entirely cut its goods from the east, but it started importing gas from Russia in 2024.
The majority of Russian oil pathways to Europe have been closed, including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The Blue Stream and TurkStream, both under the Black Sea, are the only remaining Russian gas pipelines that are operating in Europe. Turkey exports some of its Soviet oil to Europe, including Hungary.
The Russian notice still functions, but why?
The problem still poses a problem for the EU, despite the small volumes of remaining Russian oil transit. Several EU members, including France and Germany, have declared they will no longer get Russian oil, but Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria’s position, which have closer relations to Moscow, challenges the EU’s shared view.
The nations, which also receive Russian gas, claim it is the most affordable fuel, and attribute blame to EU neighbors for the large transit costs that are levied on alternative fuel sources.
Ukraine also earns$ 0.8-$ 1 billion in travel costs per year from Russian oil travel.
According to Reuters calculations, Gazprom’s full network gas exports to Europe via all roads in 2024 have increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed to the lowest levels since the 1970s.
Based on an average Russian government gas price forecast of$ 339 per 1,000 cubic meters, Reuters calculations suggest that Russia could make around$ 5 billion in sales this year through Ukraine.
Gazprom, Russia’s export monopoly on oil pipelines, lost$ 7 billion in 2023, its first quarterly decline since 1999 as a result of the demise of EU oil markets.
Russia has stated that it is prepared to expand the travel agreement, but Kyiv has repeatedly stated that it will not do so.
Another solution is for Gazprom to offer some of the oil via another way, for instance via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. But, power via these pathways is limited.
Hungary has been keen to keep the Ukrainian course open, but said it would continue to receive Russian gas from the south, via the TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.
Additionally, the EU and Ukraine have enlisted Azerbaijan to assist in conversations with Russia regarding the fuel transport agreement.
A top Utilize power company employee reported to Reuters on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have broken ground on the agreement to remain Russian oil exports to Europe via Ukraine.
