There should be no question about who deserves the lion’s share of the credit for the cease-fire and release of captives agreed to by Israel and Hamas. It was President Donald Trump’s strong speak that the captives taken by Israeli extremists on Oct. 7, 2023, had to be released or “all hell ” would be unleashed on the Middle East.
The package was the first volley in international coverage from the new leadership, taking place even before Trump took office. It did more than demonstrate the great difference between Trump’s tone and former President Joe Biden’s brand ineffective failure. It gave the new leader precisely the kind of Inauguration Day magnification he wanted, allowing him to herald in his next word with a gain in which he was both mediator and liberation of victims.
But while Trump does bask in the clapping his treatment in the discussions generated, it is not quite the defeat that it is being depicted since.
Israelis and good people everywhere are rejoicing at the freeing of three young ladies who have been held by Hamas for more than 15 weeks after Hamas and other Arab jihadists invaded 22 southwestern Jewish communities and a music festival, killing more than 1,000 Israelis. The captives were held under horrible conditions and possible underwent indescribable torment. And there will be identical happiness if Hamas releases the 30 different captives that are supposed to become freed in step one of this offer.
But the cost Israel is paying — releasing thousands of Arab extremists with the blood of innocent people on their fingers and withdrawing Israeli forces from most of Gaza — is very difficult for the Israeli state’s protection. Trump has said he does not want further involvement in Middle East wars, but it sets up his administration for just that.
In his Dec. 2 Truth Social post, Trump spoke with greater moral clarity about the problem than the world had heard from the Biden administration during the entire course of the Israel-Hamas war. Trump’s threat was interpreted to be directed at Hamas and its allies, such as Qatar, Iran, and possibly even Turkey, which has also strongly supported the terrorist group.
Envoy’s Negotiations
But once Trump sent his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to the Middle East, it became clear that he was just as interested in muscling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Witkoff praised Qatar’s government — which plays a double game allying itself with Iran and funding Hamas while also claiming to be friendly with the United States — as “doing God’s work ” to get an agreement. Witkoff’s argument to Netanyahu “was basically ‘It’s up to you… either you do the cease-fire and we start the relationship, or you don’t do the cease-fire [and ] you don’t give the incoming president what he wants. Then we can’t promise we’ll be engaging the way you want us to, ’” according to The Washington Post.
Withdrawing from Gaza
The substance of the agreement is problematic if Trump’s goal is to help eradicate Hamas and ensure that the group can’t make good on their promise to repeat the Oct. 7 atrocities.
The war is not going to end by Israel withdrawing from most of Gaza and some other entity taking charge of the Strip. Hamas will take control of any territory Israel leaves. On Oct. 6, 2023, Gaza was n’t occupied, since Israel had withdrawn every soldier, settler, and settlement from it in 2005. It was an independent Palestinian state in all but name, run by an Islamist terrorist organization pledged to destroying Israel and accomplishing the genocide of its people — Oct. 7 was only the trailer of what they wished to do.
Hostages Left Behind
Another huge fault with the negotiation is that most of the hostages are not being released in phase one. Once Israel withdraws and Hamas begins the process of reorganizing and rearming, it is doubtful that Hamas will keep its deal for phase two and three, when the more than 60 remaining hostages are supposed to be released. Witkoff did not obtain the release in phase one of all seven American citizens who are still held hostage by the terrorists. Five will still be in their hands when phase one ends.
Seen in that context, the deal is a gift to Hamas and Iran. The wild celebrations in Gaza about the cease-fire, along with the crowds menacing the released hostages in their last moments of Hamas control, make two points clear.
As polls of Palestinians have shown throughout the conflict, contrary to Biden’s assurances, Hamas is popular with its own people, as were the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks. Hundreds of released terrorists who murdered Israelis received a hero’s welcome. Hamas has achieved one of its goals — to blackmail Jerusalem into freeing imprisoned Palestinian murderers. A cease-fire with Hamas still standing is also a victory for them. Israeli withdrawal means there is nothing in the deal that will effectively prevent Hamas from resuming the war.
False Premises
Witkoff’s talk of visiting Gaza and of instilling its people with hope sounds nice, but it is exactly the sort of pious sentiment Biden’s people would utter. It is premised on belief in a two-state solution that the Palestinians have made clear they have no interest in, as their support for Oct 7 shows. Trump had exposed the two-state solution as just another establishment myth by the end of his first term, with the negotiation of the Abraham Accords that prevented the Palestinians from continuing to veto peace with other Arabs. But Witkoff seems to have been sucked back into the same thinking of those staffing the Obama and Biden administrations.
We’re hearing encouraging rhetoric from the Trump team, such as secretary of defense nominee Pete Hegseth, about support for Israeli efforts to stamp out Hamas and other Iranian-funded terrorists. And it ’s probably fair to assume that Witkoff has assured the Israelis that Trump will have their back when Hamas derails the second phase of the agreement. But if the Trump team opposes handing Gaza back to Hamas ( and there’s no reason to doubt it ), why did n’t Trump and Witkoff use their leverage to insist on a cease-fire that will avoid such an outcome? Would n’t Israel and the United States be better off not empowering Hamas?
This puts Trump in a position where he will soon have to choose, as Biden did, between full-throated support for the inevitable Israeli counter-attacks into Gaza and a policy of pressuring Jerusalem to simply endure the pain of terrorism as their due. It is a mistake to insist, as some Trump supporters will, that Israel can do this easily or that there will be no political cost to the new administration, which owns this cease-fire. There will be the cost in casualties for both sides and it would diplomatically weaken an already isolated Jewish state, no matter Hamas ’ provocations.
The president will also be forced to choose between letting Iran off the hook for its behavior or armed conflict, possibly involving U. S. forces, such as to protect international shipping from Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen.
There will be a cease-fire of some sort in Gaza for which Trump can claim credit. Still, the cost he is asking Israel to pay for freeing only some of the hostages is handing Hamas and Iran an undeserved victory. This is exactly the sort of mistake that Biden made time and again, as well as the sort of strategic blunder Trump managed to avoid in his first term. Those who have high hopes that Trump 2. 0 will reverse Biden’s folly abroad and at home should not be celebrating this deal.
Jonathan S. Tobin is a senior contributor to The Federalist, editor in chief of JNS. org, and a columnist for Newsweek. Follow him on Twitter at @jonathans_tobin.
