For days, it was the stone visit that had the earth on edge. A large space rock once thought to be on a collision program with Earth was the subject of NASA’s attention when it approached 2024 YR4. The figures kept changing—1 in 32 chances at one stage, enough to make yet former astronomers uncomfortable.
But then, after two months of intense estimates, experts have breathed a collective sigh of relief. Earth is now completely safe from YR4, according to NASA’s official statement on Tuesday, confirming that it will just fly by in 2032 and pose no threat for the rest of the century. ” That’s the goal we expected all along”, said Paul Chodas, mind of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
It’s a beautiful turnaround. Just last week, the asteroid—estimated to be up to 295 foot wide—had a 1.5 % prospect of slamming into our world. The explosion would have been similar to 8 gigawatts of TNT, which is 500 days the power of the Hiroshima weapon, had it struck. It was possible to wiped out entire places.
The figures later corrected themselves, as authorities predicted, bringing the effect risk down to near zero. But while Earth has dodged a celestial shot, there’s another problem—YR4 may be heading directly for the Moon.
NASA warns the meteor now has a 1.7 % chance of hitting our lunar cousin, a big jump from previous quotes. The Moon doesn’t have an environment to protect it, unlike Earth. If YR4 makes touch, it would reach at 30, 000 miles per hour, leaving a volcano up to 6, 500 feet across—a clean wound on the moon’s surface.
However, scientists believe these chances will probably drop as well. Before YR4 disappears from view in the upcoming months, the James Webb Space Telescope will quickly determine its real size.
For researchers, this tip with catastrophe wasn’t really a scare—it was an option. ” While this meteor no longer poses a significant influence threat to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an important prospect” for research, NASA noted.
In the end, Earth got happy. The Moon? That tale isn’t over yet.
