KHARTOUM: Analysts say the terrible two-year conflict is still ongoing despite the fact that Sudan’s army has retaken control of the presidential palace from opposing paramilitaries and is moving forward with regaining control of the capital.
The army-aligned government was forced to retreat Khartoum in the early stages of the conflict, which is now a breath away from regaining as a result of a counteroffensive launched late last year after a string of humiliating loses.
The regional divide is being made more acute by the victory, according to Sharath Srinivasan, a professor at Cambridge University who studies Sudan.
However,” the fight is definitely far from finished,” he told AFP, noting that “large areas still are controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces ( RSF) ).
” Neither area is ready to fall.”
Three state TV team members and several soldiers were killed in an Military drone attack on the complex days after losing the national palace.
The guerillas launched artillery attacks on residential neighborhoods in Khartoum as army troops moved to clean the city’s main Khartoum and claimed place in far-off places.
Analysts speculate that the RSF may be attempting to maintain Khartoum’s army’s hold, allowing the armed force to strengthen its hold over the great western region of Darfur, where the US has claimed to have committed genocide.
The “biggest battlegrounds”
Since April 2023, the war has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people and caused the worst hunger and movement problems in the world, according to the UN.
Sudan has also been torn in two, splitting the nation into competing areas of control.
Khartoum and El-Fasher, the single state investment in Darfur that the RSF has been under siege of for ten months, are the “big outposts right now in this war,” according to Sudanese scientist Kholood Khair.
According to Khair, its soldiers took Al-Malha, which they said was” a proper stage” in the conflict to regain complete command of Darfur, last year.
Al-Malha, one of the northernmost settlements in the desert region on Sudan’s border with Libya, is located about 200 kilometers ( 125 miles ) from El-Fasher, the state capital of North Darfur.
Controlling it might support the RSF secure the weakened provide lines that analysts claim have hampered its Darfur campaign and give the military force more fighters, fuel, and weapons.
The geographical section that is taking place could lead to a de facto separation, according to Srinivasan, who is encouraged by the RSF in Darfur.
The RSF and its allies signed a contract next month to form their own state in rebel-held areas, a step that the UN Security Council warned would further splinter the nation.
A key issue, according to Cameron Hudson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, is whether the troops did “be material” with completing Khartoum and remaining neutral in Sudan’s north and east, or whether it will advance west and attempt to overthrow the RSF.
Detente?
According to Hudson, the government may have to deal with “enormous force” as thousands of displaced people attempt to reclaim their homes, according to Hudson.
Additionally, there is the risk of widespread hunger and a higher risk of crimes against civilians, both factors have been accused of.
After the military conquers Khartoum, there is certainly a fork in the road ahead, according to Alan Boswell, director of the International Crisis Group for Horn of Africa.
He told AFP,” Either more warfare, or a pivot to try to stop this through serenity talks.”
Although neither side has shown any desire for a truce, the most recent military gains offer an opportunity for its “main sponsors to try and storm this combat down,” said Boswell.
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army chief, has constantly backed Egypt, who has also drawn close to Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
Days after his forces recaptured the presidential palace and the government operating out of Port Sudan on the Red Sea as opposed to returning to Khartoum, Burhan vowed there would be” no conversations” without a whole Military surrender.
His deputy Yasser al-Atta vowed to “take revenge” on Chad, South Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates for backing the paramilitaries on Sunday.
The UAE has refuted widespread accusations that the RSF has been passing weapons through Sudan’s borders, but Boswell claims that he is” the RS F’s main patron” and the “other key player” in the conflict.
A detente between Abu Dhabi and Port Sudan is the best course of action, he said.
