US President Donald Trump now has a product ready for his three variety countries — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — ahead of the first overseas vacation of his next president, set to begin on Tuesday. According to US leaders, Trump has pledged to begin referring to the Persian Gulf — the body of waters that separates the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia from the state its formal name is associated with, Iran— as the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia. Although Trump doesn’t have the authority to change the title actually, the metaphor is important. Muslim countries have long been pushing for a change of title, while Iran has highlighted its own ancient ties to the Gulf.
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Poll
Do you think Trump’s upcoming’very large announcement’ will considerably effect Middle East relations?
Trump even promised a “very, very great statement” during his Middle East vacation. ” It’ll be one of the most crucial presentations that have been made in several years about a particular subject, extremely important subject,” Trump said, somewhat obliquely.
Egyptian hope and issues:
But what does Trump want to accomplish? ” Each of the Gulf destinations, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, hold a set of policy priorities for US President Trump,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute ( RUSI). ” Riyadh is in need of foreign direct investment to meet its Vision 2030 reform targets and does not want to be frozen out of the opportunities that the UAE locked in by joining the Abraham Accords [ US-brokered diplomatic normalization agreements between Israel and a set of Arab countries],” Ozcelik told DW. Before the politics in the region was derailed by the Hamas evil assault on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the resulting conflict in Gaza, Israel and Saudi Arabia were nearer to establishing diplomatic relations. The US-brokered deal between Jerusalem and Riyadh was about a multilateral agreement, as the US may have granted security guarantees, a quasi-NATO lighting for Saudi Arabia, and a Saudi civil nuclear program. However, a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel is at the moment nothing near feasible, as” the Kingdom cannot backwards down from its’red line’, especially a reliable path to Israeli statehood,” Ozcelik added. According to diplomatic sources in Washington, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan insisted during his visit to the White House in April that Israel be kept off the agenda during Trump’s visit. ” The Saudi side is prioritizing business to steer clear of an uncomfortable situation,” Emily Tasinato, Gulf researcher and fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR ), told DW. At the same time, there are “indications that Riyadh and the Trump administration are moving forward with other aspects of the mega deal, independent of the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel,” she said. ” One aspect involves the Saudi civil nuclear program, where Trump seems now ready to discuss cooperation without requiring the Kingdom to establish diplomatic ties with Israel,” Tasinato said, adding that “another pertains to defense, even though not in the format of a binding defense treaty, as it is something that does not necessitate a deal with Israel. ” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, also thinks that the conflict between Israel and Gaza will be sidelined during Trump’s upcoming trip. ” Arab countries expect Trump’s visit will promote greater economic engagement, while the visit will also focus on promoting regional security cooperation with a GCC meeting [Gulf Cooperation Council, an alliance of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman],” she told DW. But Vakil also believes” that meeting will serve as a cover for no real progress on Gaza,” she said. Despite being in the region, Trump has not scheduled a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Focus on big business:
” I view business as the key element for assessing stakes during Trump’s Gulf tour,” ECFR’s Tasinato said. ” Several executives from US defense firms are expected to join Trump on his trip to the kingdom,” she said, adding that” Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have all pledged significant US investments before Trump’s visit. “” The Saudi leadership is pursuing investments and partnerships with American firms and has offered$ 600 billion [€533 billion ] in trade and investment over four years,” she said. ” The same is true for the UAE, which plans to invest$ 1. 4 trillion in the US in the next decade, with a focus on artificial intelligence infrastructures and semiconductors,” Tasinato added. Several US deals on selling aircrafts and missiles to GCC countries have also been announced. ” The Saudi-US Investment Forum [taking place in Riyadh during Trump’s visit ] must be viewed against this backdrop, as Riyadh seeks to expand its technology sector through opportunities in data centers, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, among others,” Tasinato said.
What could the’very big announcement’ be?
Analysts believe Trump’s mysterious “big announcement” could either have something to do with the Hamas hostages still held in Gaza, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal, or the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. ” For Trump, it would be a major moral and diplomatic victory if a hostage release deal could be agreed with Hamas either before or during his visit,” RUSI’s Ozcelik said. Tasinato, however, thinks it is more likely that the announcement will either refer to the US-Iranian nuclear deal or to Yemen’s Houthis, who just agreed to an Oman-brokered ceasefire with the US that halts their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but not on Israel. Several sources have said that Iran had a supportive role in the ceasefire negotiations with the Houthis. This could be an indication that Iran is showing willingness to sign a nuclear deal with the US which would likely lead to some relief of economic sanctions on Iran and stave off the possibility of an Israeli military strike on the country. ” There is a growing alignment between Saudi Arabia and the US regarding the inclusion of the Yemeni dossier in the nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, as part of a broader de-escalation process in the region,” Tasinato said. Either way, it is safe to say that Trump’s surprise announcement will also serve US business interests. ” President Trump recognizes the trade and investment opportunities in the Gulf, and wants to be able to’tap out’ of the Middle East as the US pivots toward China, which is a longstanding posture,” Burcu Ozcelik said. ” Stronger ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, states that are not aligned with each other on all fronts but collectively aspire to be heavyweights in the region, mean that the US can entrust regional actors with securing the region,” she added.
