This content was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission.
Since March 15, the United States has intensified its flying campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi separatists, claiming to have hit more than 1,000 goals.
Dubbed “Operation Rough Rider, ” the campaign is intended to halt Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and ratchet up pressure on Tehran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.
But despite the size of the attacks, researchers question whether the work has made any lasting effects.
“The Houthis remain undeterred, ” said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group, an intelligence and security firm.
He noted that, while some Houthi system has been destroyed and officers killed, the team appears to have turned the battle to its benefits.
“Any losses are likely short-term and temporary, ” he told RFE/RL, citing a boost in Houthi recruitment and fundraising.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East security researcher with the international intelligence company Janes, added that the Houthis ’ continued ability to launch attacks — particularly against Israel and US drones — affects US states of degrading their skills.
“It is arguably getting extremely embarrassing for the United States every day the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or take down an MQ-9 ,” Binnie said.
A recent admission by the US Navy that an F/A-18 warrior fell off the USS Harry S. Truman during a movement to avoid a Houthi affect has just reinforced views that the party remains a strong threat.
However, the party has continued launching missiles toward Israel, claiming responsibility on May 2 for two attacks that prompted the Israel Defense Forces ( IDF) to intercept both and activate global lights.
US Central Command insists that the plan has degraded the speed and efficiency of the group ’s problems.
“Ballistic weapon launch have dropped by 69 percentage. Additionally, attacks from one way attack drones have decreased by 55 %, ” CENTCOM said in a statement on April 27. “Iran certainly continues to offer support to the Houthis. The Houthis you just proceed to strike our forces with the support of the Iranian regime. ”
Have The Strikes Impacted Relations With Iran?
Experts warn that the cuts may become having the same effect on local relationships, driving the Houthis closer to Tehran more than isolating them.
The group — formally known as the Ansarallah movement and designated a terrorist organization by the United States — is a key member of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance, ” a network of nonstate actors that has faced setbacks over the past year.
But since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the Houthis have elevated their role within that alliance, claiming attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians.
While their growing prominence has afforded them some autonomy, experts say they remain deeply reliant on Iran for weapons and strategic support.
“You know very well what the US military is capable of — and you were warned, ” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X on May 1, addressing Iran directly. “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing. ”
Still, Clarke argues that the strikes may have only deepened the Houthi-Iran alliance.
“If anything, the strikes have pushed the Houthis closer to Iran, ” he said, casting doubt on whether a future nuclear agreement would change Tehran’s behavior.
Binnie echoed Clarke’s skepticism. “US officials might hope the campaign pressures Iran, ” he said, “but it ’s difficult to say if that is happening. ”
A fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States was initially slated for May 3 in Rome but has been postponed due to what Omani mediators described as “logistical reasons. ”
With weeks of sustained bombing behind it, the United States appears no closer to deterring Houthi attacks or weakening their political backing — raising hard questions about the strategic value of the campaign.
