The 2026 midterms and 2028 general election are yet years away, but we’re already gaming out the scenarios with predictive fervor as we obsess over whither the country. Meanwhile, New Jersey voters have chosen their fighters for a fascinating bellwether election set for Nov. 4 of this year — less than five months from now.
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The Candidates
On Tuesday, the Garden State held primaries for its gubernatorial candidates, one of whom will emerge as governor for the next four years.
In the blue corner, we have Mikie Sherrill, currently a U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 11th District. Sherrill is part of the new class of Democrat politicians who present themselves as outwardly centrist and patriotic. On her website, she describes herself thusly:
U.S. Naval Academy graduate, Navy helicopter pilot, former federal prosecutor, wife, and mother of four kids – Mikie Sherrill proudly serves New Jersey in Congress and is running for governor to make life easier and more affordable for Garden State families. Her career has been defined by service to her country and New Jersey.
Back in the day, these characteristics indicated a rock-ribbed Republican. When wielded by a Democrat, they fool enough people into believing they are voting for someone reasonable. Once in office, however, these candidates go on to push socialism and rampant taxpayer-funded abortion just as reliably as the Squad-iest politicians while continuing to present a demeanor that tries to make these awful policies sound logical and mainstream.
In the red corner is Jack Ciattarelli, son of Italian immigrant parents and a successful businessman. He served in the N.J. General Assembly, representing District 16 from 2011 to 2018, and this campaign is his third for governor. As befits a northeastern Republican, Ciattarelli holds truly centrist positions on many issues. He supports allowing abortion up to 20 weeks (a must in blue states, where this will still be labeled woman-hating), and he wants to limit discussion of sexual topics in schools to be age-appropriate. “[W]e’re not teaching gender ID and sexual orientation to kindergarteners,” he said during a campaign appearance in 2021. “We’re not teaching sodomy in sixth grade. And we’re going to roll back the LGBTQ curriculum. It goes too far.” No matter what the lamestream media says, this is a universally popular stance.
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What makes this race a bellwether?
Over the past few election cycles, New Jersey — until recently, a reliably blue coastal state — has been trending towards the political center. This has put it on the GOP radar as a potential future swing state. With a population of just over 9 million, the state wields 14 electoral votes and holds 12 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Let’s zoom in on the past two gubernatorial races. In 2017, Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy beat Republican challenger Kim Guadagno by double digits — 56%-41.9%. (Guadagno beat Ciattarelli in the primary that year.) Four years later, in 2021 — 10 months into “President” Biden’s term — that margin collapsed to a mere 3.2% as Murphy eked out a win over Republican candidate Ciattarelli (51.2%–48%).
Zooming in on the past three Republican gubernatorial primaries in Jersey, Ciattarelli’s performance has improved vastly from cycle to cycle. In 2017, he lost the primary with less than a third (31.1%) of the vote. He won in 2021 with just about half the ballots (49.5%). This time, he expanded his popularity massively again, netting a solid two-thirds of the votes. He is a seasoned and formidable candidate in the increasingly purple state, and the wind is at his back.
Then, there’s the inescapable Trump angle.Â
Here in the northeast (as I’m sure is the case in all blue states), state and local Democrats cannot stop obsessing about Donald Trump. When they run for office, they run against Donald Trump. When they push or oppose a policy, they frame it as resisting the evil dictator Trump. For example, this is one of many such ejaculations from the Sherrill campaign for a N.J. state position:
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And there’s no cost higher than the price that all of us will have to pay if we don’t stand up to the chaos coming out of Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s Washington. As Trump and Musk work to dismantle Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and defund programs that support our students and our seniors, I’ll fight like hell to stop their reckless assault that raises costs for all of us and use every power available to me as governor to protect New Jerseyans.
Trump is an issue in every election, from dog catcher to governor, because Democrats make it so. But in the N.J. governor’s race, it’s even more so because Trump has inserted himself:
🚨NEW JERSEY: Vote for Trump-endorsed Jack Ciattarelli in the Republican primary! Lower taxes, safer communities, reliable affordable energy, and so much more! pic.twitter.com/dzPyHpTSmt
— Jesus Rodriguez (@jrodriguez_USA) June 7, 2025
Readers will recall that New Jersey serves as Trump’s summer home state when he takes up residence in his Bedminster golf club, so his connection is strong, and what happens there affects him personally and business-wise.Â
The 2026 Midterms in New Jersey will be poppin’.
The unavoidable conclusion is that this year’s governor’s race is a referendum on MAGA’s popularity in increasingly swingy New Jersey. With the 2026 midterms — and control of Congress — bearing down on us, we will take any sort of prognostication we can get.
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Democrat Cory “Spartacus” Booker has already announced his bid for re-election to the Senate. All 12 House seats will be up for grabs; with nine currently held by Democrats and only three by Republicans, there is room to grow.
What about 2028?
Finally, it’s now within grasp for New Jersey to vote for a Republican in the White House in 2028. The national party apparatus has already been putting plenty of elbow grease into this goal. Scott Pressler, for example, immediately pivoted to Jersey after his instrumental role in flipping Pennsylvania back to the Trump column in the ’24 election.
Great to see my friend @ScottPresler tonight at the Jack Ciattarelli victory party!
Scott has done AMAZING work for the state of New Jersey this year and will be a key force in helping us flip RED in November!
It’s time for the party to UNITE! pic.twitter.com/xU31u09Wg7
— Mike Crispi (@MikeCrispi) June 11, 2025
As the pieces fall into place, it’s worth watching what happens in New Jersey. I can’t wait for the governor’s race polls to start dropping!
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