In a number of crucial battleground states, Republican Senate prospects are within striking distance of vulnerable Democrats, according to a group of Siena College/New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer elections.
The series of surveys out of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — , published Monday — showed Democrats leading, but Republicans were within five points in three state. The leading GOP candidate in the other state ( Wisconsin ) trailed by single digits:
ARIZONA ( 626 registered voters )
- Rep. Ruben Gallego ( D- AZ ): 45 percent
- Former News Anchor Kari Lake ( R ): 41 percent
- Do n’t know / refused to answer: 14 percent
NEVADA ( 614 registered voters )
- Sen. Jacky Rosen ( D- NV ): 40 percent
- Ret. Army Captain Sam Brown ( R ): 38 percent
- Do n’t know / refused to answer: 23 percent
PENNSYLVANIA ( 1, 023 registered voters )
- Sen. Bob Casey ( D- PA ): 46 percent
- Businessman Dave McCormick ( R ): 41 percent
- Do n’t know / refused to answer: 13 percent
WISCONSIN ( 614 registered voters )
- Sen Tammy Baldwin ( D- WI ) 49 percent
- Businessman Eric Hovde ( R ) 40 percent
- Do n’t know / refused to answer: 10 percent
All samples were collected between April 28 and May 9, and margins of error ( MOE ) range from ± 3.6 percentage points to ± 4.6 percentage points, depending on the state. According to a Times graphic, Brown and Rosen’s lead in Nevada was well within the MOE, while Lake and McCormick were competing in their own backyards.
While Republicans are dynamic in these states, the ballot finds original President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, indicating a pattern of ticket- cutting, as the Times noted.
Trump leads Biden in a speculative two- means competition in Arizona, 49 percentage to 42 percent. However, Gallego is backed by a larger percentage of Biden supporters (87 percent ) than Lake is backed by Trump supporters ( 77 percent ).
The craze continues in Nevada, where Trump leads Biden by twice- digits in a two- means culture, 50 cent to 38 percent. Despite Trump’s lead, Brown is backed by 69 percent of Trump supporters, while 84 percent of Biden voters support Rosen.
In Pennsylvania, the margin between Trump and Biden is tighter, with the 45th president in front at 47 percent to 44 percent. McCormick earns 79 percent of Trump supporters, while 88 percent of Biden voters are behind Casey.
Notably, Siena College, the New York Times, and the Philadelphia Inquirer did not conduct surveys in Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, or West Virginia, where Republicans also have key opportunities to flip Democrat seats red.
