Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu probably believes he may get away without defining a post-war strategy, according to a CIA report distributed to US authorities this year, even though the Biden presidency has launched a full-court press to push him to put an end to the Gaza conflict.
The right-wing of his alliance, according to the June 3 statement, “probably believes he may preserve support from his safety chiefs and avoid defections” from the right wing of his alliance by speaking out against Gaza’s future in “vague terms.”
According to a source familiar with internal reporting, the assessment represents one of the most recent intelligence assessments about Netanyahu’s mindset that has been distributed among senior US officials.
It comes as a clear shift in the Biden administration’s view of Israel: less as a reliable partner and more as an unpredictably unpredictable foreign government that needs to be considered and comprehended.
The CIA declined to comment when asked about CNN’s reporting.
The assessment reveals how Netanyahu is ignoring pressure from members of his own government and the Biden administration to establish an “end state” for Gaza and warns that Netanyahu’s statements are likely to be accurate: that he will only pursue serious post-war issues once “he has met what he sees as key security benchmarks, which may take months”.
According to the assessment, those benchmarks include completing “major military operations” — , something analysts have said is deliberately vague — as well as eliminating Hamas military commander , Mohammed , Deif.
Deif , is the commander of the Qassam Brigades and,  , as a senior commander of the military , wing , of Hamas, is believed to have been deeply involved in the planning of the October 7, 2023,  , attacks  , in Israel.
Israel has tried to target Deif multiple times in the past,  , and although he has been injured, he is believed to still be alive.
The report is in line with what CNN and others have reported in the days following President Joe Biden’s announcement of a three-pronged peace deal proposal on Friday.
At a particularly tense time in negotiations, senior Biden administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns, are meeting with important mediators between Israel and Hamas.
Burns has been the main US negotiator for a potential agreement.
The US has claimed that the agreement is an Israeli proposal and that it is awaiting Hamas ‘ approval. However, Israel’s response to the proposal has been scant at best. Privately, officials have long been clear- eyed about the difficulty of getting both sides to reach an agreement.
As the civilian death toll in Gaza has risen as a result of Israel’s bombing campaign, Biden and Netanyahu have become increasingly close. He once claimed to be a “love” a world leader. Netanyahu has become more and more critical of him in public, according to Biden and other American officials.
Officials have gotten more and more honest about Netanyahu’s motivations in recent weeks and months, despite initially the administration’s deep reluctance to discuss Israeli politics in public.
In a TIME magazine interview this week, Biden claimed that” there is every reason for people to draw the] conclusion that Netanyanhu is prolonging the war for his own political gain.
The US intelligence community declared in a particularly troubling moment in March that it thought Netanyahu’s “viability as a leader” was in danger, citing public distrust of the prime minister’s ability to rule and predicting “large protests demanding his resignation and new elections.”
Netanyahu must face domestic criticism for the military and intelligence missteps that led to Hamas ‘ devastating attack on southern Israel on October 7. Additionally, he is the subject of significant divisions within his own administration. Biden is under intense pressure from rightwing officials in his fragile governing coalition to keep fighting, even under the same pressure from him to end the war.
The CIA assessment highlights that, within Israel, there is no consensus on the postwar plan for Gaza, indicating each cabinet minister’s ranging views on postwar governance, security and reconstruction.
Netanyahu, for example, is depicted alongside a blurb noting he “prefers a coalition of moderate Arab states to manage the territory with eventual participation” from other leaders.
Other Israeli leaders are portrayed as having positions on the future of the country that are diametrically opposed to those held by Netanyahu.
Overall, the assessment demonstrates how Israel’s coalition government is still polarized over a number of pressing post-war issues, supporting the CIA’s general theory that Netanyahu’s political rivals could continue to ignore pressure to lay out a strategy for Gaza once the conflict is over.
” My major disagreement with Netanyahu is, what happens after Gaza’s over”? Biden told TIME. What is the destination? Do Israeli forces reenter the””?
