Nate Silver, a polling and data analyst, has made his first presidential poll estimates for 2024, which calls for former US president Donald Trump to have a good chance of winning. According to Silver’s model, which simulated 40, 000 scenarios, Trump has a 65.7 % chance of winning the Electoral College, while President Joe Biden holds a 33.7 % chance. Despite Biden being somewhat favored to win the popular vote, this prediction suggests a major benefit for Trump.
Silver, who is renowned for making accurate predictions for past elections, made sure to adjust his model for several factors, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presence, polling data biases, and other factors. He noted that Biden, who recently hit an all-time low of 37.4 % in approval ratings, still has time to turn things around. Even though Silver also acknowledged that this might be a difficult choice, he suggested that Biden think about leaving for a different candidate at the Democratic convention.
Metal noted that if the political college’s and common vote’s differences are similar to those of the 2016 or 2020 elections, Biden could face major difficulties if the common ballot is sparsely contested. Metal made it clear that Biden is not far behind, but that it is still possible to win the competition and that making claims like this would be made up.
Diamond’s earlier forecasts are renowned for being accurate, including accurately predicting the outcome of every position in the Obama-Mitt Romney election in 2012 and giving Trump a fair chance of winning in 2016. His 2020 forecast greatly favored Biden, who finally won the presidency.
Silver’s most recent forecast raises significant questions about the potential strategies and choices the Democratic Party might make as the vote draws nearer, underlining the importance of the approaching election.
Silver’s current prediction contrasts with the outlook of FiveThirtyEight, the company he founded, which currently gives Biden a 51 % chance of winning the election.
Additionally, a recent Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters shows Trump leading Biden by four percentage points, 49 % to 45 %. This marks a change from the previous month’s surveys, where Biden led by one place. In a broader six- means game, Trump’s direct rises to six details, with 43 % of the vote compared to Biden’s 37 %. Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the independent candidate, holds 11 %, while other third-party candidates collectively receive lower percent.
The second general election campaign argument is expected to take place in Atlanta between Trump and Biden. 73 % of voters indicated they plan to tune in to the debate, which is at a crucial moment when there is significant voter interest. Just a small percentage of electors for each member said they were willing to change their voting preferences based on the discussion.
( With inputs from agencies )
