This content was formerly published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and it is now being reprinted with permission.
According to a recent report, Russian mortality data indicate that the number of Soviet forces killed has probably grown to 71, 000 since the country’s total invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The June 27 statement,  , by the independent store Essential Stories, was the latest work by journalists and nonprofit groups to come up with a realistic estimate of Russian casualties.
Since September 2022, neither the Kremlin nor the Defense Ministry have released any official fatality figures, with the government reporting that 5, 937 soldiers have died since the war began, a figure that was widely assumed to be untrue.
American quotes vary. Earlier this month, U. S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin , said , at least 350, 000 Russian forces have been killed or wounded. The key of Britain’s military forces, Admiral Tony Radakin,  , estimated , the Russian count would achieve 500, 000 by the end of June.
Using available resources — including published memoirs, legacy information, and social media posts — the Russian store Mediazona, along with the BBC Russian Service, have compiled a running tally of fatalities.  , As of June 21, that count stood at 56, 858.
Important Stories, however, used a technique related to what impartial researchers used during the COVID- 19 pandemic, when government figures appeared to have been deliberately deflated.
During the pandemic,  , experts and statisticians , looked at “excess mortality” rates — effectively, the number of deaths that occurred beyond the ordinary or usual number recorded from the previous year — to collect what they said was a more precise estimate of COVID deaths.
Using information from Russia’s national statistics company, Rosstat, Important Stories looked at extra mortality data for people between 20 and 49 years old, the age group of Russian troops.
Because many of the troops are former prison inmates, while others are non-Russian immigrants whose numbers are not always reflected in official data, the outlet claimed that the final estimate of more than 71, 000 was likely an undercount. According to Important Stories, outside demographers evaluated its estimate.
For its part, Ukraine has also released little information about its war casualties. In February, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president, declared publicly that 31, 000 soldiers had died in the two years since the Russian invasion began.
Western officials, however, have said the figure was also likely an undercount.
Russia and Ukraine have handled the problem of replenishing depleted ranks in a different way. Military recruiters managed to recruit an estimated 300,000 Russian men to send to Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin’s decreed a partial mobilization in September 2022.
Troop levels , were boosted , further by private mercenary companies like Wagner Group, which relied heavily on prison inmates. Wagner was dissolved after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash, and its units were largely absorbed into the Defense Ministry.
Ukraine, however, which has a smaller population than Russia,  , has struggled to boost its troop numbers. According to officials, the parliament made significant changes to the country’s recruitment and mobilization laws, which could result in the influx of another 500, 000 troops.
However, critics claim that the measures fail to address the issues of demobilization and rotations, which allow active-duty soldiers to leave their posts.
