The 2024 presidential vote between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has been viewed as a toss-up for decades today because national polls have consistently indicated that the competition is within a few factors. Trump currently leads RealClearPolitics by 3.3 points on the national average.
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The Electoral College, yet, is a different tale. Trump typically held the upper hand in the fight state, but his leadership was occasionally razor-thin. For instance, Trump and Biden were tied in Wisconsin before the conversation. Trump currently leads his position in terms of the RCP ordinary, which is his highest lead thus far in the campaign, by 2.2 points. A novel upgrade from the Cook Political Report will be completely devastating for Biden because his position has all since gotten worse.
NEW:  , @CookPolitical is shifting six Electoral College rankings towards Republicans.
AZ: Toss Up to Move R
GA: Toss Up to Slim R
MN: Probably D to Lean D
#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Possible D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Bend RFull analysis by @amyewalter: https ://t.co/hxRQunsvoD
— Dave Wasserman ( @Redistrict ) July 9, 2024
” The notion that the presidential]race ] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate”, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report wrote in a post on X/Twitter. ” Now, Trump has a distinct advantage over Biden and a much more believable journey to 270 Electoral votes,” said Trump.
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Relevant: Trump Made His First Misstep in Weeks
” That leaves three says in the’ shove up’ paragraph: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin”, Amy Walter explains in the document. ” At present, Pennsylvania is the most vulnerable to a flip toward Trump. Since the flower, Biden has lost somewhere between 2-3 points in polls it. Since the debate, yet, public and private polling has shown Trump starting up a bigger lead”.
We want to see some more post-debate voting in the battleground state before shifting these three western state, she continued.
That change may be expected. Some surveys put Trump’s result in Pennsylvania, a must-win condition, by double-digits.
Cook Political Report:” In one set of research that I received, Trump increased his lead over Biden in Pennsylvania from four factors to ten details.”
That would be disaster Trump country. https ://t.co/w6XAywJKxa
— Josh Kraushaar ( @JoshKraushaar ) July 9, 2024
Walter also pointed out that there has been a major change of six factors toward Republicans since 2020 during an appearance on Jen Psaki’s MSNBC present. For the approaching elections, more states that were once nearer or leaning Democrat are in play due to this change.
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COOK POLITICAL REPORT: The national culture has” shifted six points more Democrat” since 2020 photograph. twitter.com/4IyJMnjZwe— RNC Research ( @RNCResearch ) July 8, 2024
Based on the Cook Political Report’s analysis, Trump then has 268 electoral vote in his row, compared to Biden’s 226, once again creating the situation where Biden would have to get Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to get to 270, while Trump would only have to get one of them. It’s difficult to imagine how he could take that off even if the conversation always took place given how many blue states have recently entered the fray.
