This article was reprinted with permission after being published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister of Israel, claimed that the death of Hamas ‘ political leader and the EU- and US-designated Arab terrorist organization, “because peace is not on the plan at this point,” will not have an impact on the peace process toward a resolution.
Despite the fact that Israel has never claimed responsibility for the assault, Olmert told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda in an appointment on July 31 that Iran’s reply will be dictated by Tehran’s conviction that Israel carried out the assault.
Olmert, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009 and actively participated in fruitless efforts to find a two-state option with the Palestinian Authority, said,” Whether we did it or not is less crucial.” ” It’s what they]Iran ] think happened that will probably determine their reaction”.
Doubts of a strong conflict between Iran and Israel and a wider Middle East conflict have grown as a result of Haniyeh’s death on Egyptian soil and Israel’s use of targets for Tehran-backed organizations engaged in strikes against Israel.
In a July 31 article on Telegram, Hamas announced that the 62-year-old Haniyeh was killed in an “air attack on his home in Tehran”. Haniyeh, who headed Hamas’s social office in Qatar, was in the Egyptian capital with various leaders of Iran’s” axis of weight” opposing Israel to enter the July 30 the opening of newly elected President Masud Pezeshkian.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of Iran, has promised retaliation against Israel for the shooting, despite Israel’s silence on the event. According to the New York Times, Khamenei, citing Egyptian leaders, ordered a clear attack on Israel at a crucial gathering of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on July 31. Pezeshkian said in a July 31 speech that Iran” will support its regional dignity” after the invasion, without providing information.
Haniyeh actively participated in international negotiations to end Israel’s and Hamas ‘ conflict in the Gaza Strip. The 10-month conflict, sparked by a dangerous assault on Israel on October 7 launched by Hamas and another Arab extremist groups, has killed almost 40, 000 people, mostly civilians, according to health authorities in Gaza.
Israel claimed Fuad Shukr, a commander of the Iranian proxy Lebanese Hizballah, was the subject of Haniyeh’s murder, which Israel claimed was responsible for the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights rocket attack on July 28 that claimed the lives of 12 Israeli youths.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ( IRGC ) of Iran confirmed on August 1 that Shukr was killed in Israeli-led strikes against Lebanon-occupied targets.
Israel has referred to the July 28 attack as the deadliest since Hamas’s October 7 assault, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and hundreds of hostages.
After the October 7 assault, Israel has vowed to overthrow Hamas’s leadership and has demanded the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
Haniyeh, who was a U.S.-designated terrorist, was a man of distinction and was depicted in a video that Hamas released to celebrate the success of the September 7 assault. He was crucial to securing a cease-fire, the release of Israeli hostages, and a potential peace deal because he was perceived as a relative moderate in comparison to those in Hamas’s militant wing.
Olmert, the former prime minister of Israel, downplayed the impact of any peace negotiations following Haniyeh’s passing.
Because peace is not on the agenda at this point, Olmert told Radio Farda,” I do n’t think that will have any impact on the chances for peace.” It “may lead to some more difficulties in the negotiation of a hostage agreement.”
Olmert was a member of the radical Likud party, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently leads. He backed a two-state solution to the Gaza crisis while also supporting the Arab peace initiative to end the longstanding Arab-Israeli conflict.
In light of the apparent failure of international sanctions to deny Iran technology that could be used to develop nuclear weapons, a member of Olmert’s cabinet in 2006 claimed an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was “unavoidable.” In the end, an Olmert spokesperson stated that “every option must be left open” and that additional work could be done to put financial pressure on Tehran.
In 2012, then-former Prime Minister Olmert opposed the idea of strikes against Iran’s controversial nuclear facilities.
Olmert stated on Radio Farda on July 31 that” Iranians will look for a way to react to Ismail Haniyeh’s elimination.”
However, he claimed that the “extremity of the Iranian reaction” will be impacted by the Israeli government’s decision to not officially accept responsibility for his death.
” I think it will be somewhat more moderate than under different circumstances”, Olmert said.
Olmert hoped a planned Iranian response would n’t lead to a wider Middle East conflict pitting Iran and Israel, claiming that any retaliation beyond an April 1st direct retaliatory attack would be a “mistake”
In retaliation for an attack that Tehran claimed Israel carried out earlier that month against an Iranian Embassy compound, Iran and its partners and proxies launched hundreds of drones and missiles into Israeli territory on April 13 and 14.
Seven IRGC members, including top commanders, were killed in the April 1 strike, which Israel did not take responsibility for. Most Iranian missiles and drones were shot down or otherwise failed to reach their targets as a result of the Iranian retaliatory attack, which did little harm.
Fears of a wider conflict eased somewhat after Iran reported downing a few small drones over the city of Isfahan on April 19 in an effort to stop a further upheaval, which was once again perceived as a likely Israeli counterstrike for which it did not claim responsibility.
Olmert said,” I’m not sure that this is entirely in Iran’s interests, and they may live to regret every single one of their decisions.” ” I think that the lesson they should have learned from the April confrontation is that even when you shoot hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, others, you are not going to cause such damage that you have planned to make, and you lose your deterrence, and you lose the power of your threat”.
