In my previous Wargaming the Electoral College, the map had barely budged in the 10 days or so since Presidentish Joe Biden was shoved off the top of his ticket by high-ranking members of his own party.
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That’s changed in the last four weeks and not to Donald Trump’s advantage. Can Robert F. Kennedy Jr. help change it back?
Before I try and answer that — and there might not (yet) be a satisfactory answer — a few quick words about the state of the race and one blue and red map to show you what’s changed.
According to Polymarket bettors, this really is anyone’s race. Yesterday, Trump was at 49% odds and Harris at 50%. Today it’s the other way around.
Their map looks like this:
The Polymarket results are closely in line with various polls (more on those in a moment) supposedly showing that Harris had opened things up in the Southwest (Ariz. and Nev.), shored things up in the Upper Midwest (Mich. and Wisc.), and weakened Trump slightly in the South (Ga. and N.C.).
The net result is a 251-251 tie (including leaners) with Pennsylvania determining the winner. The numbers and the swing states haven’t changed that much but Harris has more routes to victory than Biden had, and Trump has fewer than he had against Biden.
About those polls…
Stephen Kruiser and I were having this conversation earlier today on our Five O’Clock Somewhere video live chat that pollsters seem to be oversampling Democrats as part of the Uniparty push to make Harris seem inevitable.Â
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That said, she is likely doing better than Biden was doing against Trump, if only because she doesn’t look and sound like she has one foot in the grave. That alone was probably enough to win back some stragglers.Â
Enter one Robert F. Kennedy Jr as he (mostly) exits the race.
Recommended:Â That Trump Fellow Who’s Been President the Last Four Years Sounds AWFUL
Kennedy gave a rip-roaring exit speech on Friday. But lost among the fire and brimstone he delivered against today’s Democrats and his promise to campaign for Trump was his strategy going forward.Â
My name will remain on the ballot in most states. If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or Vice President Harris. In red states, the same will apply. I encourage you to vote for me.
And if enough of you do vote for me, and neither of the major party candidates win 270 votes, which is quite possible — in fact today our polling shows them tying at 269 to 269 —and I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingent election. But in about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m gonna remove my name, and I’ve already started that process and urged voters not to vote for me.
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This is a little sneaky and quite smart — Kennedyesque, you might say.
By keeping his name on the ballot in non-swing states, Kennedy avoids disappointing millions of his supporters who would still prefer to vote for him and technically keeps him in play in case of a tie.
Also, Tulsi Gabbard’s endorsement of Trump today might reassure suburban women who, for reasons I could write several columns about, as a group are highly resistant to voting for Trump. But, like RFK Jr., Gabbard’s endorsement won’t mean much if she doesn’t get out there and campaign.
Trump has shown renewed signs of discipline in the last few days — it’s so frustrating for supporters when he plays it too fast and loose and gets distracted. A point or two here and there from RFK voters, plus whatever women Gabbard can bring over… maybe the first map after Labor Day will look something like this:
We’ll know more after the first — only? — presidential debate, assuming it happens.
