The excitement is rife for the first presidential debate between former president Donald Trump and evil president Kamala Harris on Tuesday night, with betting companies now predicting that Harris will prevail.
According to the Fox News, traders on Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, gave Harris a 75 % chance of dominating the debate, compared to Trump’s 25 %. Similarly, BetUS favored Harris with a 68.75 % chance of success, leaving Trump trailing with odds of 39.22 %.
While Harris is predicted to take the upper hand in the conversation, there’s a twist—Trump is also favored to win the general vote. According to BetUS, Trump has a 54.55 % implied probability of securing victory in the presidential race, compared to Harris ‘ 52.38 %. Polymarket echoes this sentiment, giving Trump a 52 % chance of winning the election, with Harris at 45 %.
The vice president is on pace to get the controversy, but the race is in the offing. Trump has a 51.7 % chance of winning the presidency, according to Real Clear Politics ‘ average of six betting markets, compared to her 46.7 %. However, PredictIt offers a slightly different take, giving Harris a 53 % chance of winning the election and Trump a 52 % chance.
Conversation impact versus vote reality
Rutgers University’s Harry Crane, an analyst on prediction industry, explained the obvious connect. He noted that Harris is often favored in debates on systems like Polymarket based on polling data from Ipsos/538, which tend to lean more liberally. However, according to Crane, disputes may hardly significantly influence election results unless they are particularly biased.
” There are two issues going on around”, Crane said. ” One is, how much do the conversations problem? The other issue is:” Does the ballot about who won the debate really reflect who won the debate”?
The broader struggle for the president is still a much more unexpected situation, despite Tuesday night’s debate setting the tone for the upcoming weeks.
