Russia’s Kursk place was impressed by Ukraine’s brave offensive, which overturned earlier theories that the conflict was in a deadlock and exposed Vladimir Putin’s steadfast commitment to defend his country at all costs.
But a month into the operation,  , U. S.  , and European officials still question what Kyiv’s endgame is for the 500 square miles ( 1, 300 square kilometers ) of Russian territory it says its forces now occupy. Some allied officials fear , Kyiv , may been forced to give up that area within a few months if , Moscow , mounts a larger attack.
Some Western officials expressed worry that the cost of the Kursk functioning may prove great as Russian forces launch an offensive of their own in Ukraine’s eastern using better numbers to break through Kyiv’s lines. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personal discussions.
Ukraine , kept its friends in the dark about its strategies for the procedure, the largest invasion suffered by , Moscow , since World War II. The thunder campaign has revealed the failure of Russian threats, challenging the perspective that Putin’s two-year-old war had become a grinding war of attrition played to the Kremlin’s benefits.
The lack of a big Russian retaliation has also bolstered Kyiv’s reasoning that Putin’s oft-touted ‘ red lines’ are clear threats aimed at scaring the , U. S.  , and , Europe. President , Volodymyr Zelenskyy , is citing the muted Kremlin response as he pushes allies to allow , Ukraine , to use longer-range weapons on targets inside , Russia , and take the pressure off his outnumbered forces. Privately, some allied diplomats now agree the fears about Putin’s retaliation appear overblown.
” Putin has shed so much blood that his ‘ red lines’ are meaningless now”, Zelenskyy told allied officials at a meeting in , Germany  , on Friday. He repeated appeals to be allowed to use Western long-range weapons to hit targets inside , Russia ,” so that , Russia , is motivated to seek peace”.
He’s said , Kyiv , could use the territory it’s taken as a bargaining chip in talks. But with no sign from , Moscow , that it is ready to negotiate in earnest, some allies worry that , Ukraine , may not be able to hold it long enough to provide leverage in any diplomatic efforts.
Moscow , so far has n’t redeployed large numbers of troops from the east of , Ukraine , to fight in Kursk, instead continuing a deadly push against Kyiv’s lines around key logistics hubs. Allied officials said , Russia , would need to send many more troops to Kursk in order to eject Ukraine’s forces.
According to Zelenskyy, the Kursk incursion aims to establish a buffer zone that aids in protecting other Ukrainian cities from Russian attacks.
Ukraine’s move is a strategic success, according to , Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher on , Russia , and military issues at Rand in , Washington.
” This is a small incursion in one region but if , Ukraine , wanted to, it could do this again in a different part”, Dailey said. ” They’re forcing , Russia , to reassess how it defends its entire border with Ukraine”.
Publicly, Western officials have been tight-lipped about the operation, not wanting to appear to encourage a move that may yet precipitate Russian escalation.
” The Kremlin’s army of aggression is now on the defensive on its own turf” , , U. S.  , Defense Secretary , Lloyd Austin , said Friday alongside Zelenskyy.
But there is little sign allies are ready to grant Zelenskyy’s appeals to use longer-range weapons against targets in , Russia. ” I do n’t believe one capability is going to be decisive and I stand by that comment”, Austin said after the meeting, noting that , Ukraine , has” a pretty significant capability of its own” for long-range strikes.
Still, the incursion has shown allies that Ukraine’s forces can execute the kind of coordinated offensives using a range of Western-provided weapons that , U. S.  , and European officials have long encouraged.
” Kursk is a great example of Ukraine’s innovative approach to the military operations”, said , Krzysztof Nolbert, Poland’s senior defense attache in , Washington. ” After an initial messy response,  , Russia , will likely push back, the question is how long it will take to do so”, he said, noting that maintaining supply lines will be more difficult for , Ukraine , once winter sets in.
The Kursk operation was a risky gambit to gain leverage in talks, according to a senior European official, who saw growing fatigue at home as the war grinds through its third year and rising concerns that allied support may flag as well.
Zelenskyy said last month he hopes to present a new peace plan to , U. S.  , President , Joe Biden , soon. Western diplomats say the Kremlin is likely waiting for the outcome of the , U. S.  , election in November before making any serious diplomatic moves, hoping that a , Donald Trump , administration might be less supportive of , Kyiv.
So far, there is little evidence that Ukraine’s forces are building deep fortifications to defend the land they’ve captured, for instance by building trenches or laying mines and dragon’s teeth, according to , Seth G. Jones, Director of the International Security Program at the , Center for Strategic and International Studies , in , Washington.
” They’re not really preparing for large-scale, long-term defense”, he said, adding it could be part of Kyiv’s calculation to be able to retreat quickly but also leave open the option to continue advancing forward and take more territory.
Kyiv’s risky bet comes as it has voiced concerns about delays in allies ‘ promised weapons deliveries and growing doubts about the likelihood of a$ 50 billion aid package.  , Russia , has focused its most capable forces on an offensive around Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine’s east, and has been advancing steadily.
Months of Russian airstrikes on power plants and other energy infrastructure have sparked widespread rolling blackouts and heightened concerns about a broader crisis this winter across , Ukraine.
___
© 2024 Bloomberg L. P
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
