Pennsylvania and its gradually shrinking gold treasure of electoral college votes has proven the will-of-the-wisp for GOP candidates — except for Donald Trump in 2016 — in almost every election since 1988, when George H. W. Bush properly ran for Ronald Reagan’s next term. One peculiarly underappreciated researcher predicts that he might just pull it off once more in 2024.
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I do n’t cover the polls very often, but this particular story was worth my time— and yours, too.  ,
Experts have a reputation for being difficult to pin down about Trump. Some reasons were given for why Trump easily beat the 2016 elections in the key swing states that put him in the White House: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Some pollsters claimed they did n’t interview enough college-bound individuals who actively fought for Trump in the election. Some claim they were unable to get much Trump supporters to pick up the phone.
The State Steno Pool’s situation was thus troubling that during Trump’s second term, you can find many stories with articles like” What went wrong with surveys in 2016?” Can we believe them nowadays”?
Trump outperformed the elections in 2020, also. But not by sufficiently to fend off Joe Biden’s unfulfilled promises to be a cure modest, and not by enough to fend off the Mystery Mail-In Ballot System.  ,
Even the polling companies did undercount blue-collar Americans. Maybe conservatives just do n’t like talking to pollsters. Possibly, conservatives who picked up the phone did n’t want to tell a total stranger they were voting for Literally Hitler.
The purpose of that brief record lesson was to prepare you for the information coming out of Pennsylvania today, thanks to Black Insurrectionist on X:
Shocking Poll. Atlas Intel, the number one rated researcher, has come out with a new Poll. In the majority of swing state, Donald Trump is in the lead. The biggest surprise was Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump currently leads by three points, but that is not the shock; instead, Trump had a three-point lead when the poll’s heavily Democratic sample included Democrat registered voters, who made up 8.4 % of the poll.
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Atlas Intel’s claim to fame was nailing it in 2020. They did not produce polling benefits that were biased against Biden, unlike everyone else. Four years ago, their elections were the most reliable political polls. Keep that in mind as you read the Spotlight PA record from two weeks ago:
As of Sept. 16, Democrats made up 44 % of registered voters in the commonwealth, down from a 2009 high of 51.2 %, while Republicans were at 40.2 %, up from 36.9 % in 2009. Affiliated and third-party voters have boosted their numbers even more, from 11.9 % in 2009 to 15.7 %.
Then look at populations from Atlas Intel’s Pennsylvania ballot:
( Here are the full results of their most recent swing-state polling. )
Republicans were 2.9 points higher than Liberals by 1.5 positions, according to Atlas Intel. What’s going on with college graduates is even more urging for Trump followers. Only 37.4 % of Pennsylvanians over the age of 25 have a college degree, but 53 % of the likely voters in this survey have graduated from college.
The odd thing is n’t that this poll features so many college graduates; rather, they are more likely to vote than those with just a high school diploma ( or less ). It’s this:
Dems have an 8.4-point benefits in the surveys.
But only a 3.8-point result in voting licenses.
And non-college graduates are definitely undersampled.
Nevertheless, Trump is also up by three points to Harris.
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I do n’t know if Trump can beat the Philly ballot-printing machine again. Democrats were caught in the pants down in 2016 and did n’t allow that to happen again in 2020.
But I like these statistics.
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