Pleasant to the” Would You Like Fries with That” discussion. version of Wargaming the Electoral College, your semi-occasional view into the what-ifs and proclamations of the 2024 presidential vote.
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For what it’s for, I first started doing these — using copied U. S. charts and blue and red secret signs — during my freshman year at Mizzou during the 1988 election. Which is how I can admit that I was n’t a good person when I was younger.  ,
That election was a gimme, with George H. W. Bush successfully running for Ronald Reagan’s third term, and what a shame he did n’t deliver. So I properly called all 50 states, but I’ve only been surprised once every four times.
This glance at some possible Nov. 5 surprises.
Harris is showing resilience in North Carolina, despite the fact that I’ve been perfectly colored Red since the beginning of this administration’s Wargaming sections. The big question is how much of a vote-counting system will be affected by Hurricane Helene in the eastern region of the state.
Another great what-if is Nevada. Joe Biden — consider him? he does n’t — did n’t seem at all able to hold on to that state, but Harris is much stronger there than Slow Joe. Yet Polymarket punters who already have Trump at around 62 % odds of winning, in part by taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, peg Nevada as a toss-up.  ,
Now, the Polymarket chart looks like this:
Additionally, they have Harris ‘ odds down 2.5 and Trump’s chances away by 2.6 items today. Bettors must possess really liked that McDonald’s prank.
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Trump’s popularity in Pennsylvania seems to be on the rise, and Piers Morgan claims that” If Donald Trump wins the election in 15 weeks, as I believe he does, it may well be this prank that won it for him.”
Do Trump’s victory in the Keystone State surprise Harris the most, though? Pennsylvania has been ranked in the Trump row by RealClearPolitics for a while, so perhaps the only thing left to ask is whether Trump you get past the ratio of cheating in Philadelphia.  ,
Minnesota is within Trump’s grasp. I do n’t think he can quite close the deal there but it is a possibility.
Dirty Georgian maneuvers might be enough to get it in the Harris row.
You get a thorough understanding of why Team Harris and its advertising flunkies have been panicking over a little fast food company in suburban Philadelphia if we play out all the potential surprises but left Pennsylvania as our only tossup position.  ,
Extreme outdoor chance: New Mexico goes for Trump, sealing the deal without winning Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, or Nevada.  ,
Choose just remember that this is a very doubtful circumstance, with every toss-up state bursting in the less plausible way.  ,
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If it’s for anything at all, RCP’s Little Toss-Up chart looks like this:
I’m not certain what poll average is for. Perhaps it succeeds in removing the flaws and delivering anything close to the truth. Or perhaps nothing may explain the widespread and potent nature of the lying this time around.  ,
Lastly, if you’ll let me go far out on the strong close, there were only a few examples that Virginia and New Hampshire may be interested in a Democratic intra-party revolution before the Democrats ‘ intra-party revolution swapped out Biden for Harris. Because neither battle seems to believe that it may be true, I’m discrediting that claim.  ,
But keep an eye out for those two state on election day. The statistics that, no matter who wins each state, may prove to be a harbinger.
Recommended:  , Is This the Lamest, Most Violent Response to Trump’s McDonald’s Drive-Thru Celebration?