Earlier this month, Atlas Intel, which was the most accurate poll during the 2020 election period, released its latest poll results, and they were strange, to say the least. While the poll showed Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris by three factors across the country in a prospective disaster in the Electoral College, state polling at the polls suggested a little closer competition. Its position polls actually indicated a potential 269-269 link in the Electoral College.
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Even some of the condition results were odd, and it was difficult to reconcile the gap between Trump’s three-point guide on the national level and the closer competition on the state level.
I spoke with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Information in the hopes of finding the middle of this crazy surveys and the state of the competition with the election two weeks ahead. I was initially interested in learning how AtlasIntel may produce for bizarre outcomes. According to Mitchell, there are problems associated with status poll.
 ,” State polling is difficult, something that I actually battle with, though less than most MSM polls”. He believes that the battle voting may possibly have rebalancing after the vote, despite his assurance in Atlas Intel’s national statistics. According to him, federal voting is more dependable due to the larger, more representative sample sizes accessible, making it easier to interpret changes.
Lately, I’ve been having trouble with how political analysts from both sides are examining the same poll results and interpreting positive outcomes for their party. Mitchell cut through the sound.  ,
He argued that the majority of predictions for a significant Trump victory are based on the fair assumption that “polling aggregates muscular left,” but he also emphasized that both sides will use mental gymnastics to maintain optimism. ” The true tale, in my opinion, will be how poor the decline is definitely going to be in MSM narratives”. As an example, he pointed out that Kamala’s planned visit to Texas to battle is” not a good indication for them”.
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Mitchell even made a comment on the visible convergence of polling data, where more pollsters appear to be working with Rasmussen’s constantly stable numbers. He did n’t mince words:” The ones that are n’t innocently bad polling, highly subject to left response bias, have determined they are no longer able to carry Democrat water and are trying to salvage credibility”.
I questioned Mitchell about the areas he would suggest Trump to concentrate on most in the last weeks of promotion if he had any advice.
” Pennsylvania, North Carolina. He continued, noting that while Trump appears to be perfectly away in Georgia and Arizona, he was still woo Democrats with Michigan and Virginia to preserve them on the defensive.
People have been trying to understand first election results ‘ impact on social media in subsequent weeks. Mitchell acknowledges that he does n’t have the time to study these returns because his main focus is still on polling, despite the fact that he sees some value in doing so. He does predict, however, that Democrat firewalls in early voting wo n’t be as strong as in previous years, especially compared to 2020, which he views as an outlier.
The dialogue concluded with a crucial question: does the polls in 2024 become while away as they were in earlier elections? Mitchell’s answer was straightforward:” I do n’t think they will be as bad because the late-race Trump surge is already happening. But I also believe that the average result will be between one and three points over the average. Mainstream experts still have a bias against Trump, he claims, as a result of a wider” Trumpian politics” weight.
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” Only look at how bad experts are sandbagging his preference as a benchmark”! he told me.
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