As we foot closer to Election Day, I’m sure somebody is feeling sensations of confidence and shyness, pleasure and despair, and pretty much everything in between. Even so, I occasionally found myself unsure of where this contest is certainly headed, and I believe I’m not the only one.
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I spoke with Rasmussen Reports ‘ head researcher, Mark Mitchell, to get a better sense of the situation and minimize through the sound.
He informed me that he is seeing an election close to that of 1980.
” I think this is Reagan/Carter”, Mitchell told me. ” I think there are very particular reasons”.
He explained,” I thought this entire period that Trump would surpass my polling”, mainly because vote loyalty has shifted, and conventional party affiliation “means a lot less”. To bill for this, Mitchell adjusted Rasmussen’s voting method to “weight by understand vote”, which focuses on how citizens cast their ballots in 2020, more than relying only on populations like age, sex, or race.
Mitchell’s poll has shown Trump with a steady lead, yet “up two details nationally”, revealing a “mind shift of about 6-7 points” from Trump to Trump from 2020 to 2024. He attributes this change to “low propensity voters crawling over broken glass to vote Trump,” while some Democrat-leaning voters remain “on the couch in traditional blue areas.” According to Mitchell, the polling industry is still” a little bit left” of reality and does n’t fully appreciate Trump’s base’s enthusiasm.
When I asked about whether he thinks Kamala voters are genuinely as motivated as Trump’s base, Mitchell expressed doubts, noting some Democratic enthusiasm seems “manufactured”. He explained that “enthusiasm is generally a wash” in Rasmussen Reports polling, with young Democrats frequently overestimating their vote-related chances. Mitchell points out that if Democrats were truly energized, polling would reflect it, but instead, it shows a close race. His state polls show that” Republicans are crawling over broken glass” to vote, while many Democrat numbers are declining in important urban areas like Philadelphia and Atlanta.
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Mitchell claims that the enormous boost in enthusiasm Democrats needed came from switching out Biden for Kamala. He dismissed much of the enthusiasm for Kamala as manufactured. ” If they had that much enthusiasm for her, then her polling would be better, in my opinion”, he explained. When Harris stepped into Biden’s place,” We showed a Trump + 4 race become a Trump + 2 race”.
So, while Trump’s Democrat crossover advantage has waned a little, the shift in polling may have been caused by Kamala’s lack of genuine enthusiasm and response bias during the election season.
One of Trump’s more surprising moves this cycle has been his strong support for early voting, a practice that Democrats have traditionally found to be favored over. Mitchell believes this approach is “playing an anti-steal strategy”. Trump aims to neutralize any potential last-minute narrative shifts that might inflate the Kamala surge and demoralize Trump voters by urging Republicans to vote early.
The positive aspect of that is that it is effective. Republicans appear to be exceeding expectations with the early vote. However, some are saying this might be a bad thing because that means they’re” cannibalizing” the Election Day vote. But according to Mitchell, Republicans may be voting early, but they’re still set for a high turnout on Election Day. In his state polls, “50 to 60 % of voters” say they’re planning to vote in person, with Trump leading among them by” Seven to 12 points depending on the state”.
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Another fascinating aspect of this race is how influential media outlets are in shaping the perceptions of voters. As Mitchell noted, the narrative coming out of left-leaning media outlets frequently conflicts with what the data actually reveals. For instance, some outlier polls conducted in those states have favored Kamala over the RealClearPolitics averages in those states. Mitchell ponders whether these polls were conducted to “muddy the waters” and advance a Democratic agenda. He mentioned, for instance, that the recent CNN poll in Wisconsin, which showed Kamala up six points, is intended to give hope to Harris supporters even though the underlying data does n’t actually show her having an advantage.  ,
Related: Signs Point to One Outcome in This Election
When looking at the RealClearPolitics averages, Mitchell has consistently found that pollsters underestimate Trump’s performance, especially in key battlegrounds like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. With Trump on the ballot, “my personal opinion is that the polls always underestimate his state performance,” Mitchell said, supporting his theory that a red surge may be hiding behind the numbers.
As Mitchell sees it, “if]Trump ] can pull off Pennsylvania … that’s probably the election right there”. With strong showings in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, a win in just one of the traditional blue-wall states could clinch Trump’s victory.
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Trump’s popularity may be difficult to stop if low-propensity Republican voters turn out in droves on Election Day. If Mitchell’s predictions are right, the 2024 election might just look a lot like the 1980 election.
